NCEP Synergy Meeting Highlights: April 7, 2014

This meeting was led by Wallace Hogsett (WPC) and attended by Keith Brill (WPC); Becky Cosgrove, Chris Caruso-Magee, and Robbie Evans (NCO); Hendrik Tolman, Stephen Barry, Geoff DiMego, John Derber, and Mary Hart (EMC); Kathy Gilbert (MDL); Joe Sienkiewicz (OPC); Steve Silberberg (AWC); Brian Miretzky (ER); Jeff Craven (CR); Andy Edman (WR); Bob Ballard (Honolulu)

1.  NOTES FROM NCO (Chris Caruso-Magee and Becky Cosgrove)

Upcoming implementations:

• NAEFS/LAMP has been implemented.
• San Francisco Bay Operational Forecast System will go in later this month. The briefing to the NCEP director will be on April 21.
• Highres Windows will begin the 30-day evaluation by April 11. Announcement and formal evaluation letter will go out to “model eval info” email list; process is more formal now than in the past. Since the Synergy meeting it was decided that ER will participate in a limited manner.
• Next implementations will be NLDAS (just CPC/OHD), ESTOFS Pacific (a new domain for surge/tide model).

NCO will continue the effort to discontinue legacy grids and text products. WR, with other regions, is trying to revamp the grids for GFS.

2.  NOTES FROM EMC

2a. Global Climate and Weather Modeling Branch (GCWMB) (John Derber)

For the upcoming GFS implementation, EMC is basically finished with all changes, except for a few bug fixes and some downstream code. EMC is running retrospective tests, but staying real-time is problematic due to computer issues. Results from the new GFS are generally positive and encouraging, though not as positive as we had hoped. Hurricane tracks are reasonable, slightly positive.

2b. Mesoscale Modeling Branch (MMB) (Geoff DiMego)

Work for upcoming implementations:

• SREF upgrade was implemented in early April.
• For the highres windows, updates include an increase in resolution (3-4km for all domains), update of model versions, CONUS grids to replace east/west windows, and replace NMM with NMMB. Expect big precipitation improvements in the NMMB in terms of bias, which is now close to one in both models. Windows will run 00z and 12z for CONUS, and 06 and 18z for Alaska. Expect an early June implementation, with no preemption for hurricane runs this season.
• NAM improvements include better synoptic scale features out to 84h, microphysics upgrade from Ferrier to Ferrier-Aligo. No resolution or output timing changes, and EMC will also be working to get rid of old grids.
• HWRF/GFDL upgrades coming soon (date uncertain).
• Next year, RTMA/URMA, SREF, and RAP will be upgraded. SREF will not go to 12km, tentatively.
• The HRRR is not yet fitting in its slot, and it is running with inconsistent timing. However, things are looking a little more positive, and we’re planning for success. We will do what it takes to run it to 15hrs, but we’re not quite there yet. Expect August implementation, but there is some uncertainty.
• The group discussed getting rid of the DGEX, but that won’t happen until the global group can run smartinit to downscale GFS.

2c. Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch (MMAB) (Hendrik Tolman)

Wave ensemble is moving along. It can fit in the original slot, so earlier discussions to delay are off the table. Expect big improvements and much better guidance. NCO is getting close to a 30day evaluation, and OPC and NHC are ready to evaluate. Next big job is a Navy upgrade to global HYCOM; EMC will upgrade with them in lockstep when they’re ready (Q3? Q4). There will be several improvements, including to the model. Next time the initialization won’t be linked to anyone. Ice will use GEFS and not GFS, but only mean will be output.

3.                NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE (NOS, Aijun Zhang):

No report.

4.              FEEDBACK FROM MDL/OPERATIONAL CENTERS/REGIONS

4a. MDL (Kathy Gilbert):

Precipitation type, convection, and predominant weather grids will be implemented this week. MDL is still dependent on the development computer for ECMWF MOS (both deterministic and ensemble) and extended range grids for days 8-10. MOS team is working to adjust for NAM/GFS upgrades. MDL is also working on calibrated guidance for the blender project. MDL also working to move the ECMWF products to production for the next implementation, but that likely won’t happen until the end of this year or beyond.

4b. NCEP Centers and NWS Regions

Weather Prediction Center (WPC, Wallace Hogsett): Nothing to report.

Storm Prediction Center (SPC, Israel Jirak): Nothing to report.

National Hurricane Center (NHC, no representative):

Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC, no representative):

Ocean Prediction Center (OPC, Joe Sienkiewicz): Nothing to report.

Aviation Weather Center (AWC, Steve Silberberg): Nothing to report.

Pacific Region (PR, no representative):

Alaska Region (AR, no representative):

Eastern Region (ER, Brian Miretzky): Nothing to report.

Western Region (WR, Andy Edman): Nothing to report.

Southern Region (SR, no representative):

Central Region (CR, Jeff Craven):  No report

5.              NESDIS (no representative):

The next Synergy Meeting will be held (tentatively) at 2:30 pm EST on Monday, May 12 2014, in NCWCP conference room 2890, with remote teleconferencing capability.