NCEP Synergy Meeting Highlights: March
29, 2010
This meeting was led by David Novak
(HPC) and attended by Chris Caruso Magee (NCO); Becky Cosgrove (NCO); John Ward
(EMC); Geoff Dimego (EMC); Eric Rogers (EMC); Mary Hart (EMC); Vera Gerald
(EMC); Jamese Sims (EMC); Stephen Jascourt (UCAR/COMET); Steve Silberberg
(AWC); Jason Levit (AWC); Steve Weiss (SPC); Andy Dean (SPC); Keith Brill
(HPC); Jessica Schauer (TPC); Richard Pasch (TPC); Kathy Gilbert (MDL); Bill
Ward (PR); Gene Petrescu (AR); Andy Edman (WR); Dave Myrick (WR); Pete Browning
(CR); Bernard Meisner (SR); and Dave Radell (ER)
1. NCO (Chris
Caruso Magee)
Global
Multi-grid Wave Model
The
parallel evaluation for upgrading the global multi-grid wave model has been
extended two weeks. Implementation is planned for May 11, 2010. A TIN will be
posted shortly.
GFS
A
significant update to the GFS is planned for June 22, 2010 (see section 2a
below). The NCO parallel will be
starting soon.
After the GFS
implementation, the following sequence of downstream implementations is
expected:
-HWRF/GFDL
-GFS-DNG for
-RTMA for
Hurricane
Runs
NCO
is testing a fifth computer slot for HWRF/GFDL runs.
Also,
RFCs are being drafted for changes in the HWRF and GFDL models. These changes
include HWRF being coupled with HYCOM and a filter applied to the GFDL. These
implementations would follow 1 week after the GFS implementation.
Real-Time Ocean Forecast System
(RTOFS)
The addition of Jason II
satellite data into RTOFS is expected within the next four weeks.
Air
Quality for
A
NCO parallel of new air quality products for
For the latest schedule
updates see: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/changes/
2. NOTES FROM EMC
2a.
Global Climate and Weather Modeling Branch (GCWMB) (John Ward)
GFS
RFCs
are in place for the next major GFS implementation. This implementation is
planned for June 22, 2010 and includes:
-improvements
to the shallow and deep convection parameterizations.
-increase
in resolution (to T574 64L or ~27 km grid spacing).
-replacement
of shortwave radiation from NASA based version with random cloud overlap to AER
based RRTM with maximum/random cloud overlap.
-inclusion
of vertical advection of moisture, ozone and cloud condensate based on positive
definite advection scheme.
-changes
are also made to boundary layer scheme and gravity wave drag.
-3
hourly data will extend to F192
-High
resolution data will extend from F180 to F192.
-Maximum
wind gusts variable added.
Testing
shows a dramatic reduction in grid point storms (colloquially known as “precip
bombs” or “grid-scale feedback”), which have plagued the GFS. Tropical cyclone
tracks and intensity have also shown improvement.
The
resolution changes will not significantly affect the size of the pressure
coordinate files, but will affect the sigma coordinate files.
EMC
has a web page which compares real-time forecasts between the operational GFS
and the parallel GFS is at:
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/
(selected from "GFS Weather Fcst Maps" on the left panel). Note that
these web comparisons are only available for the 00Z run.
EMC
is working to establish an NAWIPS feed of EMC parallels for NCEP Centers.
NAEFS
Plans
are continuing to add the Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center
(FNMOC) ensemble to NAEFS. The addition is tentatively planed for Q4 of 2010.
OTHER
Development
is underway for creating downscaled numerical guidance from the native GFS data
for Guam and
2b.
Mesoscale Modeling Branch (MMB)(Geoff Dimego)
SREF
Select
post-processed variables primarily related to aviation are expected to be added
in Q4FY10.
A
upgrade is being planned for FY11 which replaces the remaining Eta and RSM
members with NEMS-NMM-B members. This upgrade would also increase resolution to
~22-25 km, and add a BUFR output. Assuming
all dependencies on Eta and RSM models will be removed with this upgrade, these
models could be discontinued.
RTMA
Established
a parallel 2.5 km CONUS version, which is being evaluated by ER and WR. Expect
implementation in Q4 of FY10. Also working on a slight realignment of the
High
Resolution Window Runs
FY10
plans include upgrading the WRF code version and adding a run to cover
The
next large implementation will be transitioning the WRF-NMM to the NMM-B and
embedding this model within the National Environmental Modeling System (NEMS) framework
sometime in FY2011. This transition allows the establishment of 4 km nests over
the CONUS, a 6 km nest over
RAPID
REFRESH
Expect
the transition of the RUC to the WRF-ARW in early FY11. The model slot will be
named the Rapid Refresh. The domain will cover
2c.
Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch (Vera Gerald)
The
Global Multi-grid Wave Model is planned to be upgraded May 11, 2010 (see
above).
3. FEEDBACK FROM MDL/OPERATIONAL
CENTERS/REGIONS
3a.
MDL (Kathy Gilbert)
The Alaska snow and QPF gridded GFS MOS guidance was added to NDGD in January. Within the month MDL will began routing the Alaska snow and QPF grids to the SBN, but AWIPS changes will be necessary for viewing.
The 1200 UTC CONUS snow grids will also be routed to the SBN, and the CONUS snow grids were extended from day 5 to day 6. These changes are expected to be viewable in AWIPS.
Hawaii GMOS grids are expected to be implemented by
the end of FY10.
3b.
WR
Expressed
interest in establishing operational data flows for the parallel 2.5 km Gridded
MOS from MDL.
AR
An
air quality implementation is expected in early summer.
4. The next Synergy Meeting will be
held at 2:30 pm EDT on Monday, April 26, 2010 in room 209, with remote
teleconferencing capability.