NCEP Synergy Meeting Highlights: March 1, 2010

This meeting was led by David Novak (HPC) and attended by Chris Caruso Magee (NCO); Becky Cosgrove (NCO); John Ward (EMC); Geoff Dimego (EMC); Eric Rogers (EMC); Yuejian Zhu (EMC); Mary Hart (EMC); Vera Gerald (EMC); Jamese Sims (EMC); Stephen Jascourt (UCAR/COMET); Steve Silberberg (AWC); Jason Levit (AWC); Steve Weiss (SPC); Andy Dean (SPC); Mike Brennan (TPC); Rick Knabb (CPHC); Dave Myrick (WR); Dave Radell (ER); and Jeff Waldstreicher (ER)

1. NCO (Chris Caruso Magee)

RUC

The RUC forecast projection has been extended to 18 h for the NCEP Centers as of the 12 UTC 2 March 2010 cycle. There are no plans to distribute the 13-18 hour products on the NOAAport SBN.

See: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/tin10-07aaa_ruc_changes.txt

GFS MOS/ LAMP

The GFS MOS and LAMP guidance was upgraded, as of the 12 UTC March 3 cycle. See: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/tin09-39aab_gfs_mos.txt

Multi Grid Wave Model

A parallel evaluation for upgrading the global multi-grid wave model will begin the week of March 8, with an implementation planned for April 27, 2010. A TIN will be posted shortly.

Hurricane Runs

NCO is working towards a fifth computer slot for HWRF/GFDL runs.

GFS

A significant update to the GFS is planned for late Spring 2010 (see section 2a below).

Other

The station lists used to generate BUFR soundings for the NAM and RUC models will be modified March 9. See: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/tin09-43bufr_nam_ruc.txt

A small SREF fix is planned to allow more stable SREF post processing.

For the latest schedule updates see: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/changes/

2. NOTES FROM EMC

2a. Global Climate and Weather Modeling Branch (GCWMB) (John Ward)

GEFS

The major upgrade was implemented Feb 23, 2010. A minor bug affecting the F252 downscaled Min temperature will be addressed soon.

GFS

RFCs are in place for the next major GFS implementation. This implementation is planned for May 2010 and includes:

-improvements to the shallow and deep convection parameterizations.

-increase in resolution (to T574 64L or ~27 km grid spacing).

-replacement of shortwave radiation from NASA based version with random cloud overlap to AER based RRTM with maximum/random cloud overlap.

-inclusion of vertical advection of moisture, ozone and cloud condensate based on positive definite advection scheme.

-changes are also made to boundary layer scheme and gravity wave drag.

-3 hourly data will extend to F192

-High resolution data will extend from F180 to F192.

-Maximum wind gusts variable added.

Testing shows a dramatic reduction in grid point storms (colloquially known as “precip bombs” or “grid-scale feedback”), which have plagued the GFS. Tropical cyclone tracks and intensity have also shown improvement.

The resolution changes will not significantly affect the size of the pressure coordinate files, but will affect the sigma coordinate files.

EMC has a web page which compares real-time forecasts between the operational GFS and the parallel GFS is at:

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/    (selected from  "GFS Weather Fcst Maps"  on the left panel). Note that these web comparisons are only available for the 00Z run.

OTHER

Development is underway for creating downscaled numerical guidance from the native GFS data for Guam and Hawaii. This will help support RTMA for Guam.

2b. Mesoscale Modeling Branch (MMB)(Geoff Dimego)

In generally, the branch is preparing for the downstream dependencies of the GFS upgrade. Other specific projects include:

SREF

A upgrade is being planned for FY11 which replaces the remaining Eta and RSM members with NEMS-NMM-B members. This upgrade would also increase resolution to ~22-25 km.

Assuming all dependencies on Eta and RSM models will be removed with this upgrade, these models could be discontinued.

RTMA

Established a parallel 2.5 km CONUS version. Expect implementation in Q4 of FY10. Also working on a slight realignment of the Hawaii domain, and expect to add an RTMA for Guam.

High Resolution Window Runs

FY10 plans include upgrading the WRF code version and adding a run to cover Guam (which would use GFS initial and boundary conditions).

NAM

The next large implementation will be transitioning the WRF-NMM to the NMM-B and embedding this model within the National Environmental Modeling System (NEMS) framework sometime in FY2011. This transition allows the establishment of 4 km nests over the CONUS, a 6 km nest over Alaska, and possibly nests for Puerto Rico and Hawaii. An internal EMC parallel has been started.

2c. Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch (Vera Gerald)

The Hurricane Wave model is planned to be upgraded April 27, 2010 (see above).

3. FEEDBACK FROM MDL/OPERATIONAL CENTERS/REGIONS

3a. MDL (Kathy Gilbert)

A major upgrade to GFSMOS and LAMP occurred as of the 12 UTC March 3 cycle. See: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/tin09-39aab_gfs_mos.txt

3b. NCEP Centers and NWS Regions

Nothing to report.

4. The next Synergy Meeting will be held at 2:30 pm EDT on Monday, March 29, 2010 in room 209, with remote teleconferencing capability.