NCEP Modeling Synergy Meeting Highlights February 27, 2006

This meeting was led by Peter Manousos and attended by Geoff Dimego, Dave Plummer, Brent Gordon, Mary Hart, James Partain, Dan Pawlak, Joe Sienciewicz, Keith Brill, and Mark Iredel. Additionally, Stephen Jascourt attended by remote conference.

1. CCS

Brent Gordon stated the delayed start of the 06/18Z NAM cycles will commence March 7 2006 in preparation to allow room for 4x/day SREF (implementation scheduled for late spring/early summer). This will also introduce symmetry across all cycles for the NAM product suite. March 14 2006 represents the start date for the NAM extension of BUFR soundings to f84 and will introduce a 20-30 min delay in sounding output availability. Brent also reported the TOC moratorium has been extended through at least March 14. Additionally, 13-km grids from the 13-km RUC might be available by April 4 (presently, NCEP posts 13-km RUC output at 20, 40, 80 km grid spacing). Pending evaluation May 30^th represents the operational implementation of the Global Ensemble upgrade (increase from 10 to 14 members per cycle) and June 13^th for NCEP WRF-NMM replacing Eta in the NAM slot.

2. NOTES FROM EMC

2a. Global Modeling Branch: Mark Iredell stated June 20^th represents the tentative operational implementation date of the current GFS parallel. This implementation will occur without GSI but will include the transition to a hybrid vertical coordinate system, changes to the ozone physics, and a few bug fixes. The changes are relatively minor and EMC is confident with the accumulated changes to the point where an evaluation will not likely be required

2b. Mesoscale Modeling Branch (MMB): Geoff DiMego stated evaluation for NAMx begins March 6 (announcement pending). NAMx is run at 12km res with the same number of vertical levels as the NAM (60). Retrospective parallels for last summer are also being run, though at 16 km grid spacing. The WRF vertical coordinate is sigma—pressure hybrid and the top of the model is 2mb. The NAMx will not initially incorporate Level II radar data into GSI – but will by the end of this FY. Nevertheless, internal parallel NAMx runs have shown overall improvement over the operational NAM. James Partain volunteered to poll the SSDs on behalf of NCO to see if the regions wish to have lowest layer model simulated radar reflectivity available for the evaluation in addition to simulated composite reflectivity.

2c. Global Ensemble Prediction System: Zoltan Toth was on travel and therefore no items were reported.

2d. Short Range Ensemble Prediction System: Geoff Dimego stated the next SREF upgrade will include bias corrected output (for a wide spectrum of variables) and an increase in production to 4 cycles per day. Eventually all members of SREF will be WRF based (elimination of Eta and RSM membership).

2e. Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch (MMAB): No report.

3. Meetings will be held on an as-needed basis. Therefore the next meeting will be held April 27 2006 at noon in room 209 with remote conference capability.