NCEP Modeling Synergy Meeting Highlights January 30, 2006

This meeting was led by Peter Manousos and attended by Geoff Dimego, Joe Carr, Dave Plummer, Bill Bua, Mary Hart, Zoltan Toth, Mark Iredell, Dan Pawlak, Keith Brill, Ed Danaher, Larry Burroughs, and Regina Nichols. Additionally, SPC’s Gregg Grosshans attended by remote conference.

1. CCS

Joe Carr stated the moratorium ended in early January and the CCS upgrade (Service Pack 12 on White and the Global Parallel File System - GPFS) was completed. The replacement for White (in Fairmont, WV) is slated to begin this summer and Blue (Gaithersburg, MD) early fall. Logistics to procure of the new NOAA Research and Development system is continuing (this will replace Frost, Snow and the HPSS archive) and is targeted for implementation this FY. These replacements are intended to be declared operational early FY 07 (after the next Holiday moratorium Dec 2006). Joe also reported a number of parallel runs have been scheduled (and listed by modeling group below).

2. NOTES FROM EMC

2a. Global Modeling Branch: Iredell stated testing of the GSI replacement to SSI is ongoing. The SSI is considered frozen. They will also transition to a hybrid vertical coordinate system. Evaluation of this next upgrade is pending but targeted to occur before summer.

2b. Mesoscale Modeling Branch (MMB): Geoff DiMego stated the next big event will be the WRF parallel with an intended 2 month evaluation ending by June. The parallel will include analysis changes (adding Level II radar velocities). The model can now be run to fit into its slot in the production suite. The BUFR sounding output is targeted extend out to f84 (currently f60). Further, the 06/18Z cycles of the NAM will be permanently delayed 25 minutes starting March 7 to synchronize the runtimes with the 00Z/12Z runs o of the NAM. Other notes - the Real Time Mesoscale Analysis (RTMA – CONUS domain 5km res at 30min freq) is coming online, RUC output will be available in grib2 starting April 4, and the Air Quality Index domain will expand to cover the entire CONUS by the end of this summer

2c. Global Ensemble Prediction System: Zoltan Toth stated the new method for generating perturbations (stochastic method – ensemble tranfsorm) is “looking good” and targeted for implementation in FY 07. This method reduces the number of outliers in the ensemble (and increases the spread). This method will also eliminate the negative/positive paired perturbation configuration. Additionally, at least 4 members will be added to each cycle with the potential of an additional 6 (total 10) depending on computing resources. The two month evaluation period for this parallel is intended to end in April. The changes to the NCEP Global Ensemble Prediction System imply an upgrade to the North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS). The NAEFS will also expand up to 60 members (20 members from Canadians, NCEP, and the Navy). Tests on producing bias corrected fields and climatological anomalies are intended to begin in May. An NAEFS meeting will be held in May in Montreal. Zoltan also stated the Winter Storm Recon program started in mid January and will continue through March.

2d. Short Range Ensemble Prediction System: Geoff Dimego stated the next SREF upgrade will include bias corrected output (for a wide spectrum of variables) and an increase in production to 4 cycles per day. Eventually all members of SREF will be WRF based (elimination of Eta and RSM membership).

2e. Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch (MMAB): Larry Burroughs announced his retirement date is June 2 of this year. Regina Nichols will be his replacement. Larry also stated that the wave ensemble will come on line in March, the Great Lakes wave model by late summer. Larry also reiterated the Atlantic Real Time Ocean Forecast System became operational Dec 13^th 2005 (output of 25 levels out to f120, with hourly output to f24).

3. The next meeting will be held Feb 27 2006 at noon in room 209 with remote conference capability.