NCEP Synergy Meeting Highlights: January
25, 2010
This meeting was led by David Novak
(HPC) and attended by Chris Caruso Magee (NCO); Jordan Alpert (EMC); Shrinivas
Moorthi (EMC); Geoff Dimego (EMC); Eric Rogers (EMC); Yuejian Zhu (EMC); Mary
Hart (EMC); Suranjana Saha (EMC); Chad Cary (EMC); Vera Gerald (EMC); Jamese
Sims (EMC); Stephen Jascourt (UCAR/COMET); Steve Silberberg (AWC); Jason Levit
(AWC); Andy Dean (SPC); Richard Pasch (TPC); Mike Brennan (TPC); Joe Sienkiewicz
(OPC); Jim Hoke (HPC); Keith Brill (HPC); Kathy Gilbert (MDL); Andy Edman (WR);
Dave Myrick (WR); Bernard Meisner (SR); Pete Browning (CR); and Dave Radell
(ER)
1. NCO (Chris
Caruso Magee)
GEFS
A
parallel evaluation is ongoing. Implementation is planned for February 23. See:
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/tin09-34aab_gefs.txt
Participating
evaluators should specifically evaluate benefits listed in the charter.
RUC
The
RUC forecast projection is being extended to 18 h and a small bundle was added
to assure model stability. This implementation is planned for March 2, 2010. A
TIN will be posted shortly. There are no plans to distribute the 13-18 hour
products on the NOAAport SBN.
Hurr
Wave To Multi Grid Wave Model
A
parallel evaluation for upgrading the Hurricane Wave to the global multi-grid
wave model is expected to begin soon, with an implementation planned for March
30, 2010. RFCs’ have been submitted and A TIN will be posted shortly.
GFS
A
significant update to the GFS is planned for late Spring 2010 (see section 2a
below).
For the latest schedule
updates see: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/changes/
A
question arose regarding the NCO process for implementing model bug fixes.
Changes are prioritized depending on the level of effort and urgency. For
example, emergency changes are implemented quickly while bug fixes having
little forecast impact may be delayed.
2. NOTES FROM EMC
2a.
Global Climate and Weather Modeling Branch (GCWMB) (Jordan
Alpert)
The
next GFS implementation in planned for late Spring 2010 and includes:
-improvements
to the shallow and deep convection parameterizations. There is a dramatic
reduction in grid point storms (colloquially known as “precip bombs” or
“grid-scale feedback”), which have plagued the GFS.
-increase
in resolution (to T574 64L or ~27 km grid spacing).
-replacement
of shortwave radiation from NASA based version with random cloud overlap to AER
based RRTM with maximum/random cloud overlap.
-inclusion
of vertical advection of moisture, ozone and cloud condensate based on positive
definite advection scheme.
-changes
are also made to boundary layer scheme and gravity wave drag.
A
major upgrade to the Climate Forecast System is planned for Q1 of FY11. Details
of the implementation are being developed.
Changes
include improvements to the shallow and deep convection parameterizations and
an increase in the GFS resolution (to T574 64L or ~27 km grid spacing).
2b.
Global Ensemble Prediction System (Yuejian Zhu)
GEFS
upgrade ongoing (see above).
2c.
Mesoscale Modeling Branch (MMB)(Geoff Dimego)
RUC
The
RUC extension to an18 h forecast projection is planned for March 2, 2010. (See
above).
RAPID
REFRESH
Expect
the transition of the RUC to the WRF-ARW this fiscal year. The model slot will
be named the Rapid Refresh. The domain will cover
RTMA
Established
a parallel 2.5 km CONUS version. Expect implementation in Q4 of FY10. Also
expect to add an RTMA for
High
Resolution Window Runs
FY10
plans include upgrading the WRF code version and adding a run to cover
The
next large implementation will be transitioning the WRF-NMM to the NMM-B and
embedding this model within the National Environmental Modeling System (NEMS) framework
sometime in FY2011. This transition allows the establishment of 4 km nests over
the CONUS, a 6 km nest over
SREF
Beginning
plans to provide BUFR sounding output from members. Also expect to replace the
remaining Eta members with NEMS members in the future.
2d.
Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch (Vera Gerald)
The
Hurricane Wave model is planned to be upgraded March 30, 2010 (see above).
3. FEEDBACK FROM MDL/OPERATIONAL
CENTERS/REGIONS
3a.
MDL (Kathy Gilbert)
A major upgrade to GFSMOS is planned for February 9.
See: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/tin09-39gfs_mos.txt
MDL is exploring extending GMOS out to 10 day
projections.
3b.
TPC:
Expressed interest in seeing separate sensitivity experiments for the changes
to the GFS model shallow and deep convection schemes, independent from the
changes in resolution.
Also,
will work with Yuejian to acquire retrospective hurricane tracks from the
parallel GEFS.
HPC:
International desk forecasters have noticed a dry bias in the
SR:
Providing weather support for the Haitian earthquake relief effort.
4. The next Synergy Meeting will be
held at 2:30 pm EDT on Monday, February 22, 2010 in room 209, with remote
teleconferencing capability.