For high end, rare events
point probabilities may not always make sense.
will always be very low,
possibly too low for emergency managers
Other methods need to be explored.
- develop probabilities of various thresholds within a
circle of some radius.
Such forecasts might be useful to emergency
managers helping them decide when to put their staffs on alert
Ensemble forecasts, combined with statistical methods might be able
to provide such probabilities and might be used to determine the size
of the circle.
A single non-hydrostatic model run might provide enough guidance
to develop such probabilities if the radius of the circle is based on
error characteristics of the model.
The phase error helps determine size of circle.
the magnitude of the precipitation forecast be used to help
determine probabilities of occurrence within the circle for