For high end, rare events

•**point probabilities may not always make sense. Point probabilities ****will always be very low, possibly too low for emergency managers ****to act****.
**

–__Other methods
need to be explored.____
__

•One possibility- develop
probabilities of various thresholds within a circle of some radius.
Such forecasts might be useful to emergency managers helping them decide when to put their staffs on
alert

–**Ensemble forecasts, combined with statistical methods might be able ****to provide such probabilities and might be used to
determine the size ****of the
circle. or
**

–**A single
non-hydrostatic model run might provide enough guidance ****to develop such probabilities if the radius of the
circle is based on ****error
characteristics of the model.
**

»**The phase error
helps determine size of circle.
**

»**the magnitude of the precipitation forecast be used to help ****determine probabilities of occurrence within the
circle for ****various thresholds.**__ __