A better way of
using enemble forecasts to generate probability
forecasts
•Develop rank histograms based on the precipitation
forecast by each of the members.
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•however the shape of
the histograms change significantly
based on the variability of the
ensemble members.
•So separate histograms need to be developed for high,
medium and low variability cases.
•How do you handle the
heaviest 10%, the extreme rainfall events?
From Hamill and Colucci, 1998, MWR