Krzysztofowicz approach

•Relies on calibration of
subjective forecasts of probability.

•Need rain/no rain probability

•__Uses conditional
exceedence fractiles:
__

–The X50,
or amount where there is an equal chance of getting more or less
precipitation that that number

–the X25, amount the forecaster thinks there is a 25% percent
chance of exceeding that value.

•Can
then use curve to set probabilities for any amount.

Used quasi-operationally at the PIT WFO