START BY LOOKING AT SYNOPTIC SCALE (THE BIG PICTURE)
- THERE IS A CLEAR ASSOCIATION BETWEEN SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS AND CONVECTION.
- DURING WINTER THE MODELS GIVE YOU A PRETTY GOOD APPROXIMATION OF THE SCALE OF MANY EVENTS.
- But you need to assess the uncertainty in the model forecasts and need to choose which model solution has the best mass and wind fields.
- HOWEVER, THE MODELS OFTEN HAVE PROBLEMS WHEN CONVECTION OCCURS
- THEREFORE A FORECASTER NEEDS TO ANTICIPATE WHEN CONVECTION MIGHT OCCUR
- HAS TO ANTICIPATE HOW THE CONVECTION WILL MOVE.