Skip Navigation Links 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
The Weather Prediction Center



Follow the Weather Prediction Center on Facebook Follow the Weather Prediction Center on Twitter
NCEP Quarterly Newsletter
WPC Home
Analyses and Forecasts
   National High & Low
   WPC Discussions
   Surface Analysis
   Days ½-2½ CONUS
   Days 3-7 CONUS
   Days 4-8 Alaska
   Flood Outlook
   Winter Weather
   Storm Summaries
   Heat Index
   Tropical Products
   Daily Weather Map
   GIS Products
Current Watches/

Satellite and Radar Imagery
  GOES-East Satellite
  GOES-West Satellite
  National Radar
Product Archive
WPC Verification
   Medium Range
   Model Diagnostics
   Event Reviews
   Winter Weather
International Desks
Development and Training
WPC Overview
   About the WPC
   WPC History
   Other Sites
Meteorological Calculators
Contact Us
   About Our Site is the U.S. Government's official web portal to all federal, state, and local government web resources and services.
WPC Met Watch

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion: #0965 (2018)
(Issued at 507 AM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018 )

MPD Selection

Graphic for MPD #0965

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0965
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
507 AM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018

Areas affected...Southeast U.S.

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 110906Z - 111500Z

Summary...The core rain bands associated with Tropical Storm
Michael will continue to bring heavy to excessive rainfall over
parts of Georgia and the Carolinas through mid-morning.  The most
intense rainfall rates will continue to be near the storm center
but the influx of moisture encountering the terrain of the
southern Appalachians will also be aiding the risk of excessive

Discussion...Latest radar imagery shows the center of Tropical
Storm Michael located over eastern Georgia early this morning. The
eyewall convection remains very intense with hourly rates
exceeding 1-2" with the spiraling rain bands showing hourly rates
as high as 1 inch well away from the center.

There is good consensus in the latest hi-res models that show
widespread averages of an additional 1-3" likely through 11 AM EDT
with locally higher amounts associated with the center of the
storm and along the east face of the Appalachians in the Carolinas
where the deep moisture encounters the complex terrain. The
approach of an upper trof and surface cold front from the west may
enhance rainfall rates in the area as well.




LAT...LON   37608190 37228098 36278052 35417971 34097901
            33487877 31808065 33158164 34038247 33418376
            33918450 34898444 35818377 36688314 37158267

Last Updated: 507 AM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Weather Prediction Center
5830 University Research Court
College Park, Maryland 20740
Weather Prediction Center Web Team
Privacy Policy
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Wednesday, 13-May-2015 19:29:02 GMT