WPC Met Watch |
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Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion: #0457 (2020) |
(Issued at 1027 AM EDT Thu Jul 09 2020
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MPD Selection |
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Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0457
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1027 AM EDT Thu Jul 09 2020
Areas affected...Northeast OK...Northwest AR...Far Southeastern KS
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible
Valid 091426Z - 092026Z
Summary...A few inches of heavy rainfall in a short time could
lead to flash flooding this morning across portions of northeast
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
Discussion...Organized line of convection riding the periphery of
a weak ridge aloft and MUCAPE gradient will continue to move
east/southeast this morning. GOES-E IR imagery shows some cooling
cloud tops, particularly on the western/southwestern flank of the
complex which is being fed with 20-30 kts of moist inflow
characterized by dewpoints in the middle 70s and PWs of 1.5 to 1.7
inches. With increasing insolation and heating, there should be
some gradual uptick in the convection across eastern OK and
western AR as the 850 mb inflow remains 20-30 kts. The 06Z HREF
probabilities for 1"+ hourly totals peaks at 80 percent this
morning with a slight signal in 2"+ hourly totals. The HREF mean
shows a swath of 2-3" and the probability of seeing 6-hr QPF of
3"+ is around 40-45 percent. The main limiting factor against
flash flooding is the somewhat faster progression, though the
regeneration or backbuilding on the southwest flank leading to
cell mergers or boundary interactions would be the favored
location for prolonged heavy rainfall and localized 2-3" that
could lead to flash flooding.
Taylor
ATTN...WFO...ICT...LZK...OUN...SGF...TSA...
ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...NWC...
LAT...LON 37629729 36919554 36649464 35649299 34479354
34549537 35559636 36419694
Last Updated: 1027 AM EDT Thu Jul 09 2020
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