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Short Range Public Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1955Z Feb 20, 2020)
 
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 255 PM EST Thu Feb 20 2020 Valid 00Z Fri Feb 21 2020 - 00Z Sun Feb 23 2020 ...Periods of rain and potential flash flooding over the Southeast this afternoon... ...Snow in portions of the Carolinas and Southern Appalachians, chilly temperatures to follow ... ...Exceptionally dry Friday, wet and wintry weather arrives in the Southwest this weekend... An area of low pressure tracking along a frontal boundary draped over the coastal southeastern U.S. is responsible for a pair of weather hazards over the Southeast this afternoon and evening. First, rain continues to fall throughout much of the Southeast this afternoon. Soil moisture remains overly saturated and rivers and streams are high in portions of the Southeast, thus making flash flooding a concern through Thursday evening. As a result, Flash Flood Watches have been issued for portions of central Alabama and central Georgia where the heaviest rainfall rates are expected to occur through this evening. Second, sub-freezing temperatures are spilling in from the north causing precipitation to fall as snow in portions of the Tennessee Valley and the Southern Appalachians this afternoon. As the storm intensifies off the Carolina coast this evening, rain will changeover to snow in southeast Virginia, central and eastern North Carolina, and the Appalachians of South Carolina and northern Georgia. The heaviest snowfall will be located over east-central North Carolina and southeast Virginia where 3 to 6 inches of snow is expected. Locally higher totals in excess of 6 inches are possible. Drier conditions will return once the storm tracks into the heart of the northwest Atlantic Friday morning, but well below normal temperatures will engulf much of the south on Friday and persist into Saturday as a dome of Arctic high pressure takes control. Speaking of high pressure, the affects from this massive dome of high pressure will be felt from coast to coast Friday morning with very little precipitation in the forecast much of the day. Precipitation will be on the increase over the Southwest Friday night as an upper-level trough approaches from the west. By Saturday the upper level trough, tapping into subtropical moisture from the East Pacific, will advance through the Southwest region with widespread showers and even a few thunderstorms possible in the desert regions. Precipitation is welcomed in parched areas of the Four Corners region but some localized totals in excess of an inch could lead to flash flooding concerns in south-central Arizona. Meanwhile, mountain snow is likely to develop from the Sierra Nevada and the Great Basin to the Wasatch on Saturday. Snow will then reach the Colorado Rockies by Saturday night and continue into the day on Sunday. Mullinax Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php