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Short Range Public Discussion
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 2009Z Mar 29, 2023)
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 409 PM EDT Wed Mar 29 2023 Valid 00Z Thu Mar 30 2023 - 00Z Sat Apr 01 2023 ...Storm system brings another round of rain and mountain snow into the Great Basin and Intermountain West... ...Snow squalls possible over the Interior Northeast Wednesday evening... ...Strong storm system will result in severe thunderstorms, heavy rain, and a Critical Risk of Fire Weather for the Central/Southern High Plains... A frontal system currently pushing through Nevada and southern California is resulting in a variety of weather-related hazards across the West as Pacific moisture overspreads the region. Moderate to locally heavy rainfall is forecast to impact southern California along with the cold frontal passage. Given the wet antecedent soil conditions, even moderate rainfall may result in localized flash flooding, especially over higher terrain and in urban areas. Therefore, a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 1/4) is in effect along the central and southern California coast. The cold front associated with this system is forecast to move through areas of the Great Basin and Intermountain West on Thursday and Friday. Moderate to locally heavy upslope snow is expected along with this cold frontal passage, though little to no snow accumulations are expected in the lower elevation valley locations. Gusty winds are anticipated following the cold frontal passage, with wind-related advisories currently in effect for portions of the Great Basin and Desert Southwest. Temperatures over the region will be generally 10 to 15 degrees cooler than average to end the work week, especially after the cold front passes through the region. Highs on Thursday will generally be in the 40s and 50s across the West, with 60s forecast over portions of Desert Southwest. An energetic upper-level shortwave along with its strong surface-based cold front currently located over the the Great Lakes will quickly progress eastward into portions of the Interior Northeast Wednesday evening into Thursday. Light snow is generally expected over the region, although current atmospheric conditions over Upstate New York and northern New England may be supportive for heavier bands of snow squalls, producing brief periods of heavy snow and gusty winds. A rapid onset of snow may create whiteout conditions and dangerous travel. Additionally, there will be rapid cooling behind the frontal passage, leading to a potential flash freeze, further worsening the travel hazards. Temperatures will be seasonal prior to the frontal passage Wednesday evening and Thursday morning. However, high temperatures on Thursday will be in the 30s and lower 40s, about 10-15 degrees below average for this time of year. High temperatures will rise significantly on Friday as a strong warm front approaches the region. To the west, temperatures will remain well below average as the cold Canadian airmass remains in place over the Northern/Central High Plains. Lows on Thursday morning will fall into the single digits for many locations. While warmer temperatures are expected on Thursday through Central High Plains, temperatures will stay cold over the northern High Plains going into the weekend. The frontal system currently impacting the West will eject off the Rockies into the Northern/Central High Plains and rapidly strengthen on Thursday. This system will feature impressive fronts, with a cold, Canadian airmass to the north and a warm, moist Gulf airmass to the south. Southerly flow over the Southern/Central Plains will warm temperatures significantly and increase precipitation chances on Thursday over the Central Plains. High temperatures on Thursday afternoon will generally be in the 60s and 70s across a broad region of the High Plains. Precipitation will begin from north to south across the High Plains on Thursday afternoon into the overnight period, with snow expected over the Northern High Plains and rain expected to the south. Precipitation will intensify overnight, with widespread coverage expected by Friday morning. Moderate to locally heavy rainfall is anticipated as this system progresses northeastward through the Central Plains and into the Ohio River Valley. A Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall is in effect for portions of the Mid-South, Ohio River Valley, and Upper Midwest on Friday as relatively wet antecedent soil conditions will contribute to localized regions of flash flooding. Snowfall accumulations across the Northern High Plains and Great Lakes region will generally be light. Additionally, given the moist, moderately buoyant airmass in place over the Central Plains, the Storm Prediction Center has issued a Marginal Risk of severe weather (level 1/5) in effect on Thursday for the Southern/Central Plains, and an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe weather in effect on Friday for much of the Mid-South and Ohio River Valley. On Thursday, isolated thunderstorms are possible along a dryline forecast to situate over western Texas and into Oklahoma, with the possibility of producing hail, gusty winds, and a tornado. The severe risk on Friday is heightened on Friday, as the airmass becomes more buoyant. Strong scattered thunderstorms are expected over the Enhanced Risk region, with the primary severe threats being strong, gusty winds and a few tornadoes. Additionally, a Critical Risk of Fire Weather is expected over portions of the Central/Southern High Plains as dry conditions and gusty winds behind the dryline create conditions favorable for fire weather. 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