Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
303 PM EST Fri Feb 26 2021

Valid 00Z Sat Feb 27 2021 - 00Z Mon Mar 01 2021

...Heavy mountain snow and gusty winds will impact portions of the Pacific
Northwest and Northern Rockies through Saturday...

...Numerous showers and thunderstorms likely from the Lower/Middle
Mississippi, Tennessee, and Ohio Valleys to Southern Appalachians through
the weekend...

...Light snow and wintry mix to spread throughout the Appalachians,
Northeast, and New England between this evening and Saturday...

In the Northwest, a potent upper-level trough is forecast to drop
southward into the region today, leading to continued snow in higher
elevations as well as the potential for high winds. Snowfall totals are
expected to be 1 to 2 feet in the peaks of the Cascades and Northern
Rockies before snow winds down Saturday. The Wasatch and Wind River
Mountains/Tetons could see snowfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches. Meanwhile,
high winds with gusts over 50 mph are possible in some areas in and north
of the Great Basin, leading to blowing snow and reduced visibility. Winter
Storm Warnings/Winter Weather Advisories and High Wind Warnings/Wind
Advisories are in effect for portions of the Northwest given these
threats. With this pattern, cooler than average temperatures are likely
across much of the Intermountain West, with highs about 10-20 degrees
below average by Saturday persisting through the weekend. Working with the
injection of fresh cold air, the frontal system that blanketed areas in
the Mountain West with snow yesterday will produce more winter weather
Northern Plains late tonight into tomorrow morning. Several inches of snow
and a light glaze of freezing rain are possible across portions of the
upper Corn Belt. The active pattern continues Sunday with yet another
frontal system on the heels of the first, with a shot of light rain in the
Central Plains transitioning to a winter mix north of a warm front in the
upper Missouri Valley. 

Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are possible over the next
few days across portions of the central and eastern U.S. near meandering
frontal boundaries. In particular, through Saturday night, rain of 1 to
locally 3 inches with locally higher amounts are likely across portions of
the Lower/Middle Mississippi Valley eastward into the Tennessee and Lower
Ohio Valleys and toward the Southern Appalachians. Several days of
widespread rainfall could lead to an enhanced flash flood threat in these
areas, especially into the weekend as rain could fall onto already wet
ground. As such, a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall is in place through
tomorrow morning in the Tennessee Valley, with a Slight Risk in effect for
Saturday and Sunday. Further west, the Storm Prediction Center has
outlooked a Marginal Risk of severe weather over the Upper Red River
Valley into the Ozarks tomorrow, due to the risk of damaging hail.

By this evening and into the first half of this weekend, a wave of showers
associated with the aforementioned frontal system and an approaching wave
of low pressure is forecast to encounter a colder airmass in place from
the Central Appalachians to northern New England. 2 to 3 inches of snow
and a glaze of freezing rain will be possible, and Winter Weather
Advisories are in effect for portions of the Appalachians. Light rain is
expected for coastal regions and major cities along the I-95 corridor
during this time frame. Temperatures will rise to above normal beginning
Saturday throughout the central and eastern U.S., so additional
precipitation should fall as rain, with the exception of northern Maine.

Asherman/Tate

Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php