Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
235 PM EST Mon Feb 18 2019

Valid 00Z Tue Feb 19 2019 - 00Z Thu Feb 21 2019

...Heavy rain possible from the Central Appalachians into the Ohio,
Tennessee, and Lower Mississippi Valleys...

...Heavy snow possible over parts of the Cascades, Central/Southern
Rockies, Central Plains into Upper Great Lakes, and over parts of the
Mid-Atlantic/Central Appalachians...

...Rain/Freezing rain possible over parts of the Central/Southern
Appalachians...

...Temperatures will be 15 to 26 degrees below average over the
Plains/Rockies and Great Basin...

A storm over the Central/Southern Rockies will move southeastward to the
Western Gulf Coast by Tuesday and move northward to the Middle Mississippi
Valley by Wednesday.  The system will produce snow over parts of the
Northern Intermountain Region, Great Basin, and the northern parts of the
Southwest along with the Central/Southern Rockies on Monday evening.  The
snow will move eastward into parts of the Southern/Central Plains and
Middle Mississippi Valley by Tuesday evening.  The snow will continue to
move into parts of the Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley by
Wednesday morning.  The snow will also move into parts of the Ohio Valley,
Central Appalachians, and Northern Mid-Atlantic by Wednesday morning, too.
 By Wednesday evening snow will move into the Upper Great Lakes. 

Additionally as the system moves out of the Rockies, moisture from the
Western Gulf of Mexico will move northward over over parts of the Southern
Plains eastward to the Southeast.  The moisture will advances as far north
as the Middle Mississippi Valley/Ohio Valley overnight Tuesday and into
Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic by Wednesday evening.  The storm will also
produce rain over the lower elevations of the Southwest on Monday evening
that will change over to snow by Tuesday morning.  In addition as the
moisture from the Gulf of Mexico moves inland over the Western/Central
Gulf Coast, showers and thunderstorms will develop along and in just
inland over parts of the Western/Central Gulf Coast on Tuesday.  Rain will
develop farther inland over parts of the Southern Plains, Lower
Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys as well as parts of the Southeast also
on Tuesday.  The rain will become heavy at times.  The heavy rain and
thunderstorms will move northward overnight Tuesday into the Ohio Valley
continuing into Wednesday.  On Wednesday morning, rain/freezing rain will
develop over parts of the Southern Appalachians that will move northward
into the Central Appalachians by Wednesday evening.  There is a slight to
Moderate risk of excessive rainfall from the Lower Mississippi/Tennessee
Valleys into parts of the Ohio Valley from Tuesday into Wednesday. 

Meanwhile, upper-level energy over parts of the North Pacific into Western
Canada will move southward along the West Coast to Northwestern Mexico by
Wednesday that will be followed by a much stronger area of upper-level
energy on Wednesday.  The energy and developing onshore flow will aid in
producing rain and higher elevation snow over parts of the Pacific
Northwest on Tuesday evening.  Overnight Tuesday, the snow will expand
inland into parts of the Northern Rockies and Great Basin.  As the energy
moves farther south over the West Coast, rain and higher elevation snow
will develop over parts of California and moves farther inland over the
Great Basin by Wednesday evening. 

    

Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php