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Extended Forecast Discussion
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1927Z Mar 31, 2023)
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Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
327 PM EDT Fri Mar 31 2023

Valid 12Z Mon Apr 03 2023 - 12Z Fri Apr 07 2023

...Strong winter storm to bring strong winds and heavy snow from
the north-central Rockies across the northern Plains through Lake
Superior Monday into Wednesday...
...Heavy rainfall and severe thunderstorms from the South into the
Midwest Tuesday, lingering rest of the week over the South...
...Winter cold for the West and North-central U.S. through this
week to starkly contrast summer heat that shifts east from the
South to the East/Southeast through midweek...

...Synoptic Overview...

Powerful winter storm centered over the Great Basin Monday ejects
east-northeast, reaching the north-central Rockies Monday night,
crossing the north-central Plains through Tuesday before crossing
Lake Superior Wednesday. A reinforcing trough trails this system,
likely maintaining troughing over the western U.S. through the
rest of the work week and maintaining active weather over the
southeast U.S. states. Expect a broad area of
significant/hazardous winter weather to areas from the Rockies
eastward with the main storm with that and the reinforcing low
maintaining a large area of well below normal temperatures from
the West through the northern Plains. Expect a large swath of
heavy snow north of the low track across the northern Plains and
Upper Midwest/Great Lakes along with possible blizzard conditions.
This is in stark contrast to widespread convective warm sector
showers/thunderstorms to develop and spread across the eastern
half of the country that includes a threat for severe weather with
a Mid-South focus Tuesday as per the Storm Prediction Center
(SPC). Upper ridging over the Gulf Coast should build northward
over the eastern U.S. and support anomalous warmth ahead of the
storm's associated cold front. This pattern may lead to the
stalling of the trailing front into later next week across the
U.S. southern tier. Frontal wave enhancements with the ejection of
southern stream upper energies may focus convergence/convection
and potential training/flash flooding issues, especially from
Texas across the lower Mississippi Valley.

...Model Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

Confidence further increases in the main and reinforcing systems
and associated threats next week. Forecast clustering is best
Monday-Wednesday when preference is for a composite of the 06 UTC
GFS and 00 UTC ECMWF/UKMET/CMC models for deterministic details.
Forecast spread slowly increases into later next week,
particularly with the placement and strength of the reinforcing
trough axis over the West, lending transition to a preference for
the more run to run consistent 06 UTC GFS/GEFS and 00 UTC
ECMWF/ECENS along with the 13 UTC National Blend of Models (NBM).
The 12 UTC deterministic guidance (GFS/ECMWF/CMC) has come into
better agreement with this system with a more positively-tilted
trough over the Southwest along with a potentially cutoff low off
Southern California Thursday.

...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

The big headline is the deepening Plains low that shifts over the
north-central Rockies Monday night with strong winds and heavy
snow that spill across the north-central Great Plains Monday night
through Tuesday night north of a lee-side low pressure system.
Probabilities for heavy snow steadily increase from the
north-central Rockies along a main axis from southern/eastern
Wyoming across much of South Dakota/eastern portions of North
Dakota and then across northern Minnesota Monday night into
Wednesday. This storm will also produce strong winds, with best
potential for the highest wind speeds extending from the Southwest
through southern High Plains and northward through the northern
Plains where blizzard conditions are likely. Other areas farther
east may see brisk to strong winds even if to a less extreme
degree. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are likely from the
Gulf Coast to the Midwest Tuesday, continuing Wednesday into
Friday over Texas and the Southeast as this reinforcing trough
maintains a positive tilt to the upper trough with continued
advection of copious Gulf moisture and instability over a stalling
boundary near the central Gulf Coast. An excessive rain threat
increases across Texas through the Southeast Wednesday through
Friday. Also the threat of strong to severe storms is increasing
in the expansive warm sector, with the Storm Prediction Center
highlighting and area on Tuesday.

A pronounced temperature contrast will persists across the nation
early-mid week with well below average readings spreading across
much of the western U.S. and central/northern Plains, and well
above average temperatures expanding from the southern Plains/Gulf
Coast through much of the eastern U.S. Tuesday-Wednesday look to
be the coldest days versus normal over the West/Plains with some
areas seeing highs as much as 20-30F below normal. The reverse
will hold true over the southern Plains early in the week and
farther eastward thereafter, with highs generally 10-20F above
normal and lows 15-25F above normal. Daily records mainly for cold
highs will be possible over the West during the first half of the
week. Farther east in the warm sector, Tuesday-Thursday will offer
the best potential for some daily records, with warm lows tending
to be more numerous than record highs until the cold frontal


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation, experimental excessive rainfall
outlook, winter weather outlook probabilities and heat indices are