Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
448 PM EDT Tue Apr 09 2024

Valid 12Z Sat Apr 13 2024 - 12Z Wed Apr 17 2024

...Synoptic Overview, Guidance Evaluation, & Preferences...
A deep layered cyclone near the North Pole should keep the
Westerlies moving across AK this period.  There will be some
tendency for broad ridging, especially across eastern AK, through
this weekend into early next week.  As the best 500 hPa height
gradient remains over AK, so too should a front which will waver
across the interior between late Friday and late next Tuesday. 
The 12z guidance showed reasonable agreement until early next
week, when the GFS amplified a trough near northeast Asia within a
flow pattern that should support shortwaves of modest amplitude,
at best.  Relied more heavily upon a blend of the remainder of the
guidance, including the 00z ECMWF and 12z NAEFS means, for the
pressures, winds, and fronts.  The QPF was based on a blend of the
19z NBM, 12z GFS, 12z ECMWF, and 12z Canadian.  Other grids were
more based on the 19z NBM.


...Weather/Hazards Highlights...
In southern AK, general troughing should keep the Southern
Coast/Southeast/Panhandle generally unsettled through at least the
weekend. The West may dry out this weekend, but shortwaves
interacting with a front across the interior appear to bring
another round of accumulating snow to parts of northwest Alaska
early next week. Temperatures across the southern half of the
state should stay cool much of the period, trending milder at
times as broad ridging attempts to build. The strongest anomalies
are likely across the Southeast. Northern Alaska should stay
milder than average the entire period, but moderating somewhat
this weekend as additional shortwave energy slides through the
region and increases precipitation/snow chances.

Roth


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html