Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
502 PM EST Mon Feb 03 2025

Valid 12Z Fri Feb 07 2025 - 12Z Tue Feb 11 2025

...Very Deep Aleutians Storms with High Wind Threats by Superbowl
Sunday...


...Guidance Evaluation and Preferences...

Upper ridging will strongly rebound over the Mainland by this
weekend and persist well into next week as a series of weather
focusing systems track around the periphery and eventually carve
out quite amplified/closed upper troughs just west/southwest of
the state and also downstream over western Canada. Prefer a
composite of best clustered 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF/UKMET guidance valid
for Friday into Superbowl Sunday. The 12 UTC Canadian model again
seems to work less predictable shortwave energy too much into the
blocking ridge. Big ridges tend to linger. The composite blend
offers good system detail as consistent with a pattern with above
normal predictability. This period includes the onset of what
looks to become quite a favorable period for very deep and windy
low pressure system impacts into the Aleutians and vicinity as the
signal for closed low upper energies increasingly consolidates.
Switched guidance preference to the GEFS/ECMWF/Canadian ensemble
means at longer time frames amid slowly growing forecast spread
and uncertainty. WPC product continuity is well maintained in this
manner, albeit with deeper low trends. Resultant low pressure
systems depicted on the WPC surface progs were manually deepened a
bit more than the means given ample upper support and as the full
array of models and individual ensemble members present quite a
few deeper storm threat solutions to monitor in the coming days as
system specifics come more in to focus.

...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

Quite amplified upper flow will become re-established by the
weekend for Alaska and vicinity as upper ridging strongly rebuilds
over the Gulf of Alaska and the Mainland as sandwiched by
amplified upper troughs. A series of weather focusing shortwaves
and accompanying surface lows/systems will track around the
periphery of the ridge and lift across the Aleutians to the Bering
Sea/Strait and round the Arctic Ocean/North Slope before digging
sharply through/east of a cooling eastern Interior/SouthCentral
and Southeast Alaska to the lee of the ridge with onset of surface
high pressure. Much of the rest of the state should experience
above normal temperatures with the exception of cold air inversion
cooled valleys. Meanwhile, expect periodic precipitation chances
and enhanced winds on the aforementioned system track and to a
less certain degree with lead flow into the Alaskan
Peninsula/Kodiak Island and tangentially up into Alaskan Southwest
and West/Northwest coastal areas. There is also a growing signal
for development of a high wind/wave focusing storms from the North
Pacific to the Aleutians and southern Bering Sea by later weekend
into next week.

Schichtel


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html