TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
416 PM EDT TUE JUL 02 2024

FORECAST BULLETIN 02 JUL 2024 AT 1730 UTC:

AS OF THIS WRITING...HURRICANE BERYL CONTINUES TO BE A MAJOR
HURRICANE WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 155 MPH (250 KPH). BASED
ON THE LATEST ADVISORY FROM NHC...BERYL IS MOVING QUICKLY TO THE
WNW AT 22 MPH (35 KPH)...AND IT WILL CAUSE VERY SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNTS OF RAIN...WHICH COULD ACCUMULATE AS MUCH AS 100-200MM WITH
ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA...THE
SOUTHERN PENINSULA OF HAITI...JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RAINFALL
LOCATION AFTER IT CROSSES JAMAICA AS BERYL IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES WEST...AND THE LAND INTERACTIONS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE
STRENGTH AND ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM. REGARDLESS OF INTENSITY
AND ORGANIZATION...BERYL IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE VERY SIGNIFICANT AND
HAZARDOUS AMOUNTS OF RAIN OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS OVER THE
NEXT 3 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INDICATED THAT BERYL WILL REACH
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY FRIDAY...WHICH WILL ALSO CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN THAT AREA AS WELL...UP TO AT LEAST
50MM...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW FOR THAT TIME PERIOD.

A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL BRING
DEEP MOISTURE TO WESTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS
MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND THE LOCAL
OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS TO CAUSE DAILY RAINFALL MAX VALUES THAT COULD
BE UP TO 45MM DAILY OVER SONORA TODAY...PORTIONS OF SINALOA WILL
RECEIVE UP TO 35MM TODAY...WHILE PORTIONS OF GUERRERO TO JALISCO
WILL HAVE UP TO 45MM AS WELL. OTHER PORTIONS OF MEXICO WILL
RECEIVE RAIN...FROM CHIAPAS TO VERACRUZ COULD RECEIVE UP TO 35MM
TODAY. FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THESE AREAS WILL BE RECEIVING
SIMILAR AMOUNTS OF RAIN EACH DAY. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS A
CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...WITH NHC GIVING IT A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS AS OF THIS WRITING.

A LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA IS EXPECTED TO
MEANDER OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL CAUSE
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...CAUSING RAINFALL REACHING VALUES NEAR 40-80MM
OVER WESTERN COLOMBIA INTO PANAMA AND FURTHER NORTHWEST TO
NICARAGUA. THAT SAID...THE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL BE OVER
WESTERN PANAMA INTO COSTA RICA WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS
MOISTURE IS PULLED FROM THE MONSOON TROUGH.

ELSEWHERE...OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS INTO THE
BAHAMAS...THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS THAN THE REST OF THE TROPICAL REGION...MAX
RAINFALL VALUES NEAR 35MM OVER NORTHWESTERN HAITI...MOST OF CUBA
AND OVER THE BAHAMAS ARE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 3-DAY PERIOD. THE
LATEST COMPUTER MODELS ALL INDICATE THAT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
RELATING TO BERYL WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF CUBA...BUT
UNCERTAINTY STARTS TO GO UP BY FRIDAY AND BEYOND.

THE CURRENT LOW PRESSURE NEAR 50W...KNOWN AS AL96 IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE CARIBBEAN BY MIDWEEK. THE OUTLOOK BY NHC HAS A 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION OF THIS
SYSTEM...WHILE IT IS SURROUNDED BY SAHARAN DUST. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT OF AL96...ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO EASTERN PR...WITH RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF NEAR 25-50MM OVER THE NEXT 3-DAY PERIOD.

ALAMO...(WPC)