NCEP Synergy Meeting Highlights: October 26, 2009
This meeting was led by David Novak (HPC) and attended by Rebecca Cosgrove (NCO); John Ward (EMC); Eric Rogers (EMC); Mary Hart (EMC); Chad Cary (EMC); Bill Bua (UCAR/COMET); Steve Jascourt (UCAR/COMET); Steve Silberberg (AWC); Steve Weiss (SPC); Andy Dean (SPC); Richard Pasch (TPC); Keith Brill (HPC); Kathy Gilbert (MDL); Carven Scott (AR); Andy Edman (WR); Dave Myrick (WR); Ken Johnson (ER); and Bernard Meisner (SR).
1. NCO (Rebecca Cosgrove)
The upgrade was made 1500 UTC Oct 27.
A parallel evaluation is ongoing. Implementation is expected November 3. See:
A bundle of minor changes are scheduled to be implemented November 3, 2009, including improvements to the GOES look-alike satellite product. Parallel evaluations will not be required.
A GFS parallel evaluation is expected to begin shortly, with a scheduled implementation date of December 15. See:
A Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) parallel evaluation is expected to begin in December, with an implementation planed for late January 2010. For details see: http://www.weather.gov/os/notification/tin09-34gefs.txt
For the latest schedule updates see: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/changes/
2. NOTES FROM EMC
2a. Global Climate and Weather Modeling Branch (GCWMB) (John Ward)
The next GFS implementation will include both model, data assimilation (GSI), and postprocessing changes (see TIN above). An overall GFS implementation briefing slide package will be distributed to the regions soon.
The next GFS changes center on the shallow and deep convection parameterizations. There is a dramatic reduction in grid point storms (colloquially known as “precip bombs” or “grid-scale feedback”), which have plagued the GFS. The change would be scheduled for March 2010.
An additional GFS implementation is planned for Q3 2010. This implementation increases the GFS resolution (to T574 64L or ~27 km grid spacing)
Finally, enhancements to the GSI are planned to allow assimilation of additional observations in Q1 FY2011.
2b. Global Ensemble Prediction System (John Ward)
The next GEFS upgrade (see above) increases member resolution from T126 to T190, adds a stochastic perturbation scheme, and uses 8th order horizontal diffusion for all resolutions. Tests show improved forecast skill and reliability. Additionally, several new variables will be included in the “pgrba” files, including 10, 50, and 100 mb level data, surface and top of atmosphere flux data, and soil data, and CIN. A briefing slide package will be distributed.
2c. Mesoscale Modeling Branch (MMB)(Eric Rogers)
next large implementation will be transitioning the WRF-NMM to the NMM-B and
embedding this model within the National Environmental Modeling System (NEMS) framework
sometime in FY2011. This transition allows the establishment of 4 km nests over
the CONUS, a 6 km nest over
2d. Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch
The RTOFS is expected to be implemented November 3 (see above).
3. FEEDBACK FROM MDL/OPERATIONAL CENTERS/REGIONS
Updates to the GFS MOS equations are in final testing. The MOS will be rerun using the current parallel GFS as a final test. The MOS update is expected in late January 2010.
Gridded GFS MOS (GMOS) will be updated to add snow
and qpf for the
MDL is exploring extending GMOS out to 10 day projections.
SPC: Requested more information regarding changes to the shallow and deep convection parameterizations in the GFS. This information will be distributed.
TPC: Requested retrospective hurricane runs using the parallel GFS be made available for review. John Ward will make the data available.
Noted appreciation for recent modeling support during a major refinery fire in
WR: Thanked EMC for developing the 2.5 km parallel RTMA.
AR: Thanked MDL for their work on Alaska GMOS.
4. Given the upcoming NCEP Model Suite Review in early December, the next Synergy Meeting will be deferred until the new year.