EMC/HPC/MPC/NCO/CPC Synergy Meeting Highlights 09/30/03

This meeting was led by Peter Manousos and was attended by the following: Geoff Dimego, Hua Lu Pan, Jun Du, Dave Michaud, John Ward, Ed Danaher, Bill Bua, Steve Jascourt, Keith Brill, and Larry Burroughs.

1. IBM SP and CCS

John Ward reported that the CCS continues to run smoothly and Dave Michaud reported that the MRFx has a target implementation date of November.

2. Notes from EMC

a. Global Modeling Group: Hua-Lu Pan reported that the MRFx will be running through the end of October with a target implementation in November. After the “Holiday Moratorium” (Nov/Dec time frame) a modification to better account for sub-grid scale orographic forcing, including gravity wave drag, will be implemented.

b. Mesoscale Modeling Group: Geoff Dimego reported that on September 10^th assimilation of surface temperature by the EDAS was turned off. The Eta fall bundle is still planned for implementation before the holiday Moratorium (details found in last month’s Synergy meeting highlights). A parallel version of the Eta is running at 32km resolution as the EtaY. Geoff also provided some insight to the evolution of the mesoscale model after the Holidays. The last bundle for the Eta is planned to be implemented in spring of 2004. It will likely include changing the long-wave radiation to the parameterization now running in the GFS, modifications to the land surface package, changes to the convective parameterization (but it will still be BMJ, not Kain-Fritsch), and the possibility of turning back on surface temperature data as well as adding new data types such as surface mesonets, GPS precipitable water, and boundary layer soundings. The Eta code will then be run on a hybrid sigma-pressure coordinate system by fall of 2004. At that time the model may be referred to as the North American Mesoscale Model - NMM (the NCEP version of the WRF). A precursor to the NMM can be seen by viewing the hi-res 4km fire weather runs and the nested “Hi-Res Window” 8 km runs (http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/nestpage/).

Following the spring 2004 supercomputer upgrade, the WRF era will begin, starting with the high-resolution window runs and culminating in 2005 when it will replace the Eta. Tests of running the NMM ensembles are planned for 2004, which will be run in the NMM time slots. This will be accomplished by running the NMM using a dynamic core from NCEP and NCAR using various physics packages, different boundary conditions, and various tweaks to the initial conditions. Distribution of output will also be considered in planning for an initial operating capability targeted for October of 2004.

c. Global Ensemble Prediction System: The Global EPS upgrade, adding a control and 5 pairs at “off-times (06 and 18 UTC), will be implemented before the Holiday Moratorium. This will result in 44 ensemble members per day, compared to the current 21 members.

d. Short Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) Group: Jun Du reported that an additional five Eta (KF) members were added to the SREF system on September 23^rd. Bufr sounding data is now available from the 10 Eta members (buffer output will not be produced initially for the 5 RSM members due vertical resolution differences between the RSM and Eta members. Prior to the CCS holiday moratorium the horizontal resolution of the SREF system will be increased to somewhere in the range of 32-38 km resolution (depending on computational resources) and their physics packages updated to the current versions in the operational GFS and Eta. Further, a variety of gridscale precipitation and convection physics packages will be used to generate the Eta and RSM members. Finally, there are plans for SREF dissemination in a future build of AWIPS; it will likely include only ensemble products and not fields from individual members.

e. Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch (MMAB): Larry Burroughs stated that the Global visibility fields, Eta visibility fields, and Global Vessel Icing are either already in parallel or in the process of being put in parallel mode with a target implementation date some time before the Moratorium.

3. Next Meeting Monday November 3^rd, 2003 at noon in room 209.