Brier skill
scores for six statistical methods for 3 precipitation
thresholds
BSS=1-BS/CS, BS=1/nj(fk-ok)2
k=1
n
From Applequist et al. Wea. and Forecasting,2002
Logistic regression scores higher than linear regression
Based on 4 cold seasons
Any ideas why no higher thresholds were used in the study?
The authors did not think they would have enough cases to be statistically meaningful!
A Junker editorial comment: The models
now change every
year.
PC=principal component analysis
2.5 mm
1.25 mm
0.25 mm