QUESTIONS TO ASK WHEN PREPARING A SUBJECTIVE QPF

• WHAT IS THE TIME RANGE AND PERIOD OF THE FORECAST?

• WHICH NUMERICAL MODEL APPEARS TO BE HANDLING THE MASS AND WIND FIELD BEST.

  • USE THIS MODEL AS FIRST GUESS AND THEN MODIFY ITS PRECIPITATION.

• WILL A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM FORM THAT WILLNOT BE HANDLED WELL BY THE MODEL

  • NEED TO FORECAST: INITIATION, MODE, SCALE AND MOVEMENT OF THE MCS

• HOW CONFIDENT ARE YOU OF YOUR FORECAST?

  • IF YOU LACK CONFIDENCE, BE CONSERVATIVE

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