Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
852 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024
Day 3
Valid 12Z Fri Apr 26 2024 - 12Z Sat Apr 27 2024

...A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EXISTS NEAR AND NORTH OF THE
ARKLATEX AND NEAR THE ILLINOIS/IOWA BORDER...

As a surface cyclone pulls northeast across the Plains and Midwest,
moisture and instability will lift northward through the Midwest.
Inflow at 850 hPa will be near or above 50 kts with precipitable
water values as much as 2 standard deviations above normal and
more than sufficient instability to help organize convection.
Within a broad marginal risk from the northern Plains to Upper
Midwest and southward along the cold front into the lower-mid MS
Valley and eastern Plains, continued two slight risk areas - one
near the IA/IL border and another across northeast TX, southeast
OK, and northwest MO. Both of these slight risks remain due to
heavy rainfall expected Wednesday into Thursday, and some recent
rainfall during the past week. Cell training is possible, with some
strong to severe storms as per the latest SPC Outlooks. Hourly
rainfall totals to 2" with local amounts to 4" are possible.

Santorelli/Roth