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< Day 2 Outlook
 
WPC Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Outlook
Risk of 1 to 6 hour rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance at a point
 
Updated: 0833 UTC Sun Jun 24, 2018
Valid: 12 UTC Jun 26, 2018 - 12 UTC Jun 27, 2018
 
Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Forecast
 
Forecast Discussion
 
Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
449 AM EDT Sun Jun 24 2018
 
Day 3
Valid 12Z Tue Jun 26 2018 - 12Z Wed Jun 27 2018 

...SLIGHT RISK OVER PARTS OF THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO MID 
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

...Wisconsin/Illinois to Missouri and then Eastward into Ohio 
Valley...
The risk of heavy to excessive rainfall spreads eastward as a 
closed mid-level low and associated surface low pressure and front 
translates eastward.  The biggest forecast problem will revolve 
around where any on-going convection, remnant MCV(s) or outflow 
boundaries will be at the beginning of the period...and how any of 
those factors impact eventual threat of heavy rainfall.  
Confidence is simply too low to make many refinements on mesoscale 
details.  In general, forecast soundings east of the mid level 
system and south of the surface boundary show tall, skinny CAPE 
values with K values at or above 35, precipitable water values 
generally at or above 1.75 inches all point to a risk of flash 
flooding even if there is not much confidence in details to help 
pin-down exactly where it will occur.  In addition, Flash Flood 
Guidance values have been lowered in the past few days by previous 
heavy rain events.  As a result, a broad Slight Risk was hoisted, 
with the expectation that the area will be refined in subsequent 
outlooks. 

...Southeast Coast...
The Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall was indicated along the 
Southeast U.S. coast...from parts of the Carolinas into Georgia 
and far northeast Florida as a boundary sags south.  There was at 
least a modest signal for some 1 to 3 inch localized rainfall 
amounts from convection near the front. Widespread flooding 
problems appear unlikely considering that Flash Flood Guidance 
values remain near 3 inches per hour in the outlooked area.  
However, the forcing by a boundary in a moisture rich atmosphere 
suggests that short-term rainfall rates may still result in 
localized problems.

Bann

 
Day 3 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt
 

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