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< Day 2 Outlook
 
WPC Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Outlook
Risk of 1 to 6 hour rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance at a point
 
Updated: 0842 UTC Tue Aug 21, 2018
Valid: 12 UTC Aug 22, 2018 - 12 UTC Aug 23, 2018
 
Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Forecast
 
Forecast Discussion
 
Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
455 AM EDT Tue Aug 21 2018
 
Day 3
Valid 12Z Thu Aug 23 2018 - 12Z Fri Aug 24 2018 

...MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE 
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S....

...Central Plains...
Convection over the Central Plains early on Thursday should weaken 
before the next round of thunderstorms develops over parts of 
Kansas and Oklahoma.  Southerly winds at 850 mb will accelerate in 
the evening and overnight hours to between 25 and 35 kts.  Much 
like on Day 2, the low level jet does not look to be particularly 
focused and am expecting localized heavy to potentially excessive 
rainfall embedded within a broader area of moderate rainfall that 
gradually tracks towards the Central Mississippi Valley by early 
Friday morning.  The models are depicting a second area of 
convection forming farther to the north.  


...Southwest U.S....
The axis of best Moisture Transport shifts from Arizona on Day 2 
more into eastern Arizona and New Mexico on Day 3. Ample moisture 
will be available (generally 1.5 standard deviations above normal) 
but the dynamics do not look to be as good as on Wednesday, 
suggesting that coverage will be more scattered and the potential 
for excessive rainfall not as good as on Day 2.

Bann



 
Day 3 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt
 

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