Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
428 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024
Day 1
Valid 12Z Thu Apr 25 2024 - 12Z Fri Apr 26 2024

...A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EXISTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

Convection will be ongoing at 12z this morning across portions of
the central and southern Plains. There remains some spread within
the 00z HREF guidance whether to favor a northern training axis
across portions of KS and MO, or a southern axis from northeast OK
into northwest AR. At this point it remains a bit unclear which
axis will become the dominant one, but both will likely see some
upscale convective development this morning within an area of
increasing moisture convergence in the 850-700mb layer. Storm
motions will favor some training and backbuilding, and thus some
flash flood risk will probably exist this morning from KS into
western MO, and from northeast OK into northwest AR.

Stronger mid and upper level forcing will eject east out of the
Rockies tonight, which will trigger additional convective
development over the Plains. Over KS and OK this convection should
be quite progressive off to the east. However high rainfall rates
are likely, and so any areas that see heavy rain from the first
round of convection this morning/afternoon could potentially see
areas of flash flooding tonight. Otherwise the activity should be
quick enough to pose only an isolated flash flood risk. There is a
better chance of a convective training tonight closer to the warm
front near the KS/NE border, which could drive an isolated to
scattered flash flood threat.

Overall will continue with a broad Slight risk that stretches from
near the NE/KS border southeast into northwest AR. This covers
both the expected convection this morning/afternoon, and the
development expected tonight with the arrival of stronger forcing
from the west.

Chenard