Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
The Weather Prediction Center

 
 

 

Follow the Weather Prediction Center on Facebook Follow the Weather Prediction Center on Twitter
NCEP Quarterly Newsletter
WPC Home
Analyses and Forecasts
   National High & Low
   WPC Discussions
   Surface Analysis
   Days ½-2½ CONUS
   Days 3-7 CONUS
   Days 4-8 Alaska
   QPF
   PQPF
   Flood Outlook
   Winter Weather
   Storm Summaries
   Heat Index
   Tropical Products
   Daily Weather Map
   GIS Products
Current Watches/
Warnings

Satellite and Radar Imagery
  GOES-East Satellite
  GOES-West Satellite
  National Radar
Product Archive
WPC Verification
   QPF
   Medium Range
   Model Diagnostics
   Event Reviews
   Winter Weather
International Desks
Development and Training
   Development
WPC Overview
   About the WPC
   Staff
   WPC History
   Other Sites
   FAQs
Meteorological Calculators
Contact Us
   About Our Site
 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official web portal to all federal, state, and local government web resources and services.
 
WPC Met Watch

 
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion: #0990 (2018)
(Issued at 854 AM EDT Fri Oct 19 2018 )

MPD Selection
 


Graphic for MPD #0990

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0990...Corrected
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
854 AM EDT Fri Oct 19 2018

Corrected for typos

Areas affected...Central to Northeast TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 191246Z - 191846Z

Summary...An increase in hourly rain totals to 0.5"+ with local
amounts of 1-2" is  expected during the next several hours over
saturated soils, which would enhance flooding across a saturated
region.

Discussion...Water vapor imagery shows a shortwave moving
northeast through the TX Panhandle at this time.  Infrared imagery
reveals a slow cloud top cooling across the region the past few
hours to the northwest of an inverted trough extending north from
an area of low pressure just offshore the TX coast, which is
leading to a slow increase in hourly rain totals/rates. 
Precipitable water values are ~1.75" per recent GPS data.  Inflow
at 850 hPa is slightly convergent out of the south-southwest at
20-25 kts per VAD wind profiles, which is importing MU CAPE values
of 100-500 J/kg into the region.

The 06z HREF probabilities of 0.5" an hour are forecast come up in
this area, exceeding 50% in a spotty manner through 19z.  This
fits the available moisture and MU CAPE, which should be able to
support 0.5" an hour rates from any showers and thunderstorms that
form in this environment.  The mesoscale guidance indicates the
potential for 1-2" of rain during the next six hours.  Despite a
slow upward return in flash flood guidance values, two week
precipitation anomalies are 600%+ of average, which implies
significant soil saturation.  Discussions with the local forecast
offices in the area (FWD/Fort Worth and SJT/San Angelo) indicate
the potential for virtually all the rain to be in the form of
runoff, enhancing the flood threat over the next several hours. 
Flash flooding is possible if the guidance is underselling the
potential.

Roth

ATTN...WFO...FWD...SHV...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   33349594 33009543 32869531 32029614 30979727
            31139924 32249880 33329709


Last Updated: 854 AM EDT Fri Oct 19 2018
 

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Weather Prediction Center
5830 University Research Court
College Park, Maryland 20740
Weather Prediction Center Web Team
Disclaimer
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 27-Dec-2022 16:59:57 GMT