WPC Met Watch |
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Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion: #0625 (2016) |
(Issued at 447 PM EDT WED AUG 31 2016
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MPD Selection |
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MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0625
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
447 PM EDT WED AUG 31 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST MO/SOUTHEAST KS TO EASTERN OK/NORTHWEST
AR
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 312047Z - 010130Z
SUMMARY...SLOW MOVING CONVECTION IN AN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST
ENVIRONMENT WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
DISCUSSION...SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST KS...EASTERN OK AND SOUTHWEST MO THIS
AFTERNOON. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED INCREASINGLY COLD CLOUD TOPS
DEVELOPING IN THIS AREA...SUGGESTING THAT CONVECTION SHOULD
CONTINUE TO REMAIN ACTIVE AND CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING INTENSE
RAINFALL RATES FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. MOISTURE HAS BEEN POOLING
HERE WITH PW VALUES RUNNING CLOSE TO 2 INCHES PER 12Z SOUNDINGS
AND THE LATEST BLENDED TPW SATELLITE IMAGERY. CELL MOTION SHOULD
BE FAIRLY SLOW GIVEN LIGHT WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS.
THE HRRR AND RAP QPF FIELDS HAVE NOT BEING DOING PARTICULARLY WELL
WITH RAFL AMOUNTS...BEING CONSIDERABLY WEAKER THAN THE 1 INCH TO
SPOTTY 2 INCH PER HOUR RATES OVER CREEK AND LINCOLN COUNTIES IN
OK AS SHOWN BY THE TULSA 88D. THERE IS AGREEMENT THAT THE MU
CAPES AND ML CAPES WILL BE DECREASING THIS EVENING.
EVEN THOUGH FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS HIGH IN THIS AREA...ON THE
ORDER OF 3 TO 4 INCHES PER 3 HOURS...THE COMBINATION OF HIGH
RAINFALL RATES...SLOW CELL MOTION AND THE RISK OF CELLS TRAINING
OVER THE SAME AREA...FEEL THAT FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
BANN
ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...LZK...OUN...SGF...TSA...
ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...
LAT...LON 38169392 38129226 37159163 35689425 34529636
34909842 36219764 37779577
Last Updated: 447 PM EDT WED AUG 31 2016
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