WPC Met Watch |
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Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion: #0624 (2016) |
(Issued at 247 PM EDT WED AUG 31 2016
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MPD Selection |
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MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0624
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
247 PM EDT WED AUG 31 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN NM...TX/OK PANHANDLE
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 311846Z - 010046Z
SUMMARY...SLOW MOVING CONVECTION IN AN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST
ENVIRONMENT WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD THREAT
OVER INCREASINGLY SATURATED SOILS.
DISCUSSION...SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS
EASTERN NM INTO WEST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH COOLING CLOUD
TOPS NOTED ON IR IMAGERY. THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO FORM ON THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE MOISTURE PLUME IN A CONSISTENT REGION OF LOWER
LEVEL CONVERGENCE. 250 MB HEIGHT FIELDS ALSO SHOWS DIFFLUENT FLOW
OVER THE REGION...LIKELY HELPING ENHANCE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE ABOVE 1.5" ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH
IS ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. OVERALL EXPECT
LIMITED ORGANIZATION TO THE CONVECTION GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WEAK
FLOW AND LACK OF DISTINCT MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING MECHANISM.
ALTHOUGH SLOW STORM MOTIONS...COMBINED WITH THE STATIONARY
CONVERGENCE AXIS AND HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...WILL LIKELY
STILL LEAD TO AT LEAST ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD ISSUES. THE THREAT IS
ENHANCED DUE TO RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL LOWERING FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE ACROSS THE REGION. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
DECREASE TOWARDS SUNSET.
CHENARD
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...LUB...MAF...OUN...
ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...
LAT...LON 36590031 36019925 34650011 32190268 32090453
33930386 35620242
Last Updated: 247 PM EDT WED AUG 31 2016
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