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WPC Met Watch

 
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion: #0490 (2016)
(Issued at 953 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2016 )

MPD Selection
 


Graphic for MPD #0490
 
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0490
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
953 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST KS...SOUTHERN MO...NORTHEAST
OK...NORTHERN AR 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 251400Z - 251900Z
 
SUMMARY...SLOW MOVING CONVECTION IN A HIGH MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT
COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY WHERE CELL MERGERS AND
TRAINING OCCURS. 

DISCUSSION...THERE HAS BEEN AN UPTICK IN CONCENTRATION OF
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS OVER SOUTHEAST KS INTO SOUTHERN MO...WHERE THE
IR LOOP SHOWED CLOUD TOPS COOLING NEAR NEAR -73 CELSIUS. THE
CONVECTION IS ROOTED IN AN AXIS OF 2.30 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER
AIR (WHICH IS BETWEEN TWO AND THREE STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE
MEAN)...AND THE 12Z KSGF SOUNDINGS SHOWED AN SBCAPE VALUE ABOVE
2800 J/KG. THE KSGF RADAR INDICATED HOURLY RAINFALL RATES NEAR
1.75 INCHES OVER SOUTHWEST MO...AND THE KDP PRODUCT INDICATED
SEVERAL HEAVY RAIN CORES IN THIS AREA. 

AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS AND CENTRAL
MO DROPS SOUTHWARD...THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THE AXIS
OF HIGHEST MOISTURE AND 2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE INTO SOUTHEAST
KS/SOUTHERN MO/NORTHEAST OK INTO NORTHERN AR (AS DEPICTED BY THE
LATEST RAP). DURING THIS TIME...THE 850-300 MB MEAN FLOW DROPS
BELOW 10 KNOTS...AND OPPOSES THE CORFIDI VECTORS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF FAR SOUTHERN MO AND NORTHERN AR. 

THE WEAK LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW WILL FOSTER CELL MERGERS AND
TRAINING ACROSS THIS AREA INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE IS
A FAIRLY STRONG SIGNAL IN THE LATEST HRRR/EXPERIMENTAL HRRR/HRRR
PARALLEL FOR LOCAL 2-4 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY WHERE
TRAINING AND CELL MERGERS OCCUR. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT EACH OF
THE ABOVEMENTIONED SOLUTIONS WAS TOO FAR NORTH WITH ITS RAINFALL
PLACEMENT AT 12Z...SO THE THREAT WAS ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD.

BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE RELATIVELY LOW (GENERALLY LESS THAN 20
KNOTS) DUE TO WEAK MID LEVEL FORCING...SO THE COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION COULD BE PROBLEMATIC. BECAUSE OF THIS...FLASH FLOODING
IS CONSIDERED POSSIBLE. 

HAYES

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...LSX...LZK...MEG...PAH...SGF...TOP...
TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   38229602 37989258 37549138 36519061 35639175 
            35879450 36599655 37309677 37949658 


Last Updated: 953 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2016
 

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Page last modified: Tuesday, 27-Dec-2022 16:59:57 GMT