MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0353
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1234 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2018

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 241634Z - 242004Z

SUMMARY...ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.  FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS THAT
HAD EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVERNIGHT.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS AN MCS UPSTREAM THAT
IS CONTINUING TO ADVANCE TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN OKLAHOMA.  ALTHOUGH THE MCS IS NOT QUITE AS INTENSE AS
EARLIER THIS MORNING, THERE ARE STILL ENOUGH CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
WITH RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF AN INCH PER HOUR.  THE MAIN
CONCERN IS OVER THOSE AREAS THAT HAVE MUCH LOWER FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE, PARTICULARLY EAST OF OKLAHOMA CITY AND SOUTH OF TULSA.

PWATS REMAIN HIGH WITH VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1.5 TO 1.9 INCHES
ALONG WITH MLCAPE OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
ONGOING MCS.  THE LATEST GOES 16 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO INDICATE AN EXPANSIVE COLD ANVIL CANOPY WITH
OVERSHOOTING TOPS.  IT APPEARS THAT THE LATEST HRRR AND HRRRX ARE
UNDERDONE WITH FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THIS AFTERNOON.  THE NAM CONEST AND THE LATEST ARW APPEAR TO HAVE
A MORE REASONABLE DEPICTION OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAIN
THROUGH 20Z. 

D. HAMRICK

ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...

LAT...LON   36539839 36489772 36239692 35919571 35619488
            34989451 34439487 34349550 34479620 34559692
            34549792 34709879 35059930 35419941 35819934
            36219909