MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0231
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
144 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...N CENTRAL KANSAS 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 240544Z - 241014Z
 
SUMMARY...FAVORABLE ORIENTATION FOR CELL MERGERS AND POSSIBLE
TRAINING OF EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCING CONVECTION MAY POSE
SHORT-TERM ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD THREAT.

DISCUSSION...SWIR LOOP SHOWS SURGE OF HIGHER MOISTURE/FOG BANK
INTERSECTING WITH WSW-ENE BNDY ACROSS NW KS INTO AN OLD OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY ACROSS N CENTRAL KS.  THIS SURGE OF HIGHER MOISTURE IS
TRANSPORTED ON STRENGTHENED LLJ PER DDC VWP TO 50 KTS.  RAP
ANALYSIS NOTES THAT MST AXIS IS NEAR/ALONG 100W VEERING SLIGHTLY
TOWARD ELLIS/TREGO COUNTIES...BUT ALSO SHOWS MST TRANSPORT IS
GENERALLY SPLITTING...AS SUCH SHOULD FAVOR CONVECTION ALONG
EASTERN SIDE OF THE DEVELOPING LINE...THOUGH ALSO SWIR INDICATES A
BIT MORE WARMER AIR TOWARD THE WESTERN LINE ALONG 100W LIKELY FROM
OUTFLOW OF COMPLEX THAT HAS DIED IN NW OK.  INSTABILITY AXIS IS
ALSO FURTHER WEST IN ZONE OF SOME CURRENT MST CONVERGENCE BUT LLJ
IS FORECAST TO VEER IN THE NEXT FEW HOUR REDUCING CONVERGENCE
FORCING.  

ACTIVE CONVECTION SHOULD SUPPORT RATES OF 1.5-2.0"/HR WITH CELL
MOTION VECTORS/BUNKERS RGT MVG SUPERCELL VECTORS TOWARD THE EAST
AT 15-20 KTS.  GIVEN ORIENTATION OF BOUNDARY COULD SUPPORT CELL
MERGERS AND TRAINING BEFORE THE COLD POOLS/MCV GENERATE AND
SUPPORT STRONG E AND SE FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS.  AS SUCH THIS
POSES A SHORT TERM AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD THREAT ACROSS N
CENTRAL KS WHERE MERGERS/TRAINING OCCURS. 

GALLINA

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GID...GLD...ICT...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   39959819 39879703 39559640 39009597 38509661 
            38499799 38529899 38669964 38920031 39230049 
            39520024 39889930