WPC Met Watch |
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Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion: #0216 (2018) |
(Issued at 241 PM EDT MON MAY 28 2018
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MPD Selection |
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MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0216
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
241 PM EDT MON MAY 28 2018
AREAS AFFECTED...FL PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST AL...SOUTHERN GA
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 281840Z - 290040Z
SUMMARY...SUBTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO CONTINUES APPROACH ON THE
WESTERN FL PANHANDLE WITH BANDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ADVANCING WELL
INLAND ALONG WITH MORE CONCENTRATED RAINFALL NEAR THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION.
DISCUSSION...THE LATEST GOES-16 SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
CIRCULATION CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO GETTING VERY CLOSE
TO THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE. AS OF 18Z...ALBERTO IS POSITIONED 30
MILES SSW OF PANAMA CITY FL...OR ABOUT 55 MILES WEST OF
APALACHICOLA FL.
THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS RATHER CONCENTRATED CONVECTION IN
THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF ALBERTO BEGINNING TO MOVE INLAND...WITH
MULTIPLE WELL-DEFINED RAIN BANDS WRAPPING WELL INLAND AROUND THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN FLANKS OF THE CIRCULATION INCLUDING SOUTHEAST
AL...SOUTHERN GA AND ADJACENT AREAS OF NORTHERN FL.
RAINFALL RATES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES/HR ARE EXPECTED GIVEN THE HIGH
PWAT ENVIRONMENT. SOME LOCALIZED TRAINING BANDS OF CONVECTION ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WHICH WILL BE
FURTHER FACILITATED BY ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW AND
DIURNALLY ENHANCED INSTABILITY.
THE LATEST HIRES MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS AS MUCH AS 3 TO 6 INCHES
OF CORE CONVECTIVE RAINFALL LIFTING THROUGH THE WESTERN FL
PANHANDLE AND INTO SOUTHEAST AL GOING THROUGH 00Z AS THE STORM
TRACKS NORTH. THE INDIVIDUAL OUTER RAIN BANDS AROUND THE
NORTHERN/EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE CAPABLE OF 2 TO 4
INCH AMOUNTS.
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE EXPECTED RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY AS ALBERTO CONTINUES TO
PREPARE FOR LANDFALL.
ORRISON
ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...JAX...MOB...TAE...TBW...
ATTN...RFC...SERFC...
LAT...LON 33158558 33128416 32538274 31418194 30368166
29338179 28758246 28798295 29178324 29518347
29748368 29858396 29858433 29718468 29538493
29578523 29608542 29518585 29578623 29728653
29988670 30158692 30598721 31408728 32548664
Last Updated: 406 PM EDT MON MAY 28 2018
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