WPC Met Watch |
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Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion: #0147 (2017) |
(Issued at 219 AM EDT WED APR 26 2017
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MPD Selection |
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MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0147
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
219 AM EDT WED APR 26 2017
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST OK & NORTHWEST AR
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 260618Z - 261218Z
SUMMARY...A SLOWING BOUNDARY IN SOUTHEAST OK COMBINED WITH AN
INCOMING SHORTWAVE SHOULD LEAD TO A NEW ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL
BEYOND 08Z. HOURLY RAIN RATES OF UP TO 1.5", WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS
AS HIGH AS 3-5", COULD LEAD TO FLOODING.
DISCUSSION...A PROGRESSIVE SQUALL LINE ACROSS EASTERN OK HAS LED
TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN RATES ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN OK.
THE TAIL END OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE HAS SLOWED NOTICEABLY AS OF
LATE AND CONTINUES TO GENERATE NEW THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS
LINE IS EXPECTED TO MARCH INTO NORTHWEST AR WITH TIME. THE
THUNDERSTORM PROGRESSION IS EXPECTED TO EAT AWAY AT THE
INSTABILITY REMAINING ACROSS SOUTHWEST MO, NORTHEAST OK, AND
NORTHWEST AR. TO THE SOUTH, 1000-3000 J/KG OF MUCAPE IS EXPECTED
TO VERY SLOWLY FADE (ROUGHLY 200-250 J/KG AN HOUR) BETWEEN WICHITA
FALLS AND LITTLE ROCK. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.2-1.6"
INHABIT THE REGION PER GPS DATA. INFLOW AT 850 HPA IS 30-60 KTS
PER VAD WIND PROFILES. BULK SHEAR IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER OF 30-50
KTS EXISTS LOCALLY.
A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM NORTHEAST NM IS EXPECTED
TO LEAD TO A NEW ROUND OF WHAT SHOULD BE ELEVATED CONVECTION
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OK AND NORTHWEST AR BEYOND 08Z. THE SURFACE WAVE
OF IMPORTANCE APPEARS TO BE LOCATED NEAR ADA. THERE ARE SATELLITE
INDICATIONS (PER EXPERIMENTAL GOES-16 IMAGERY) OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IN THE CLOUD FIELD ACROSS NORTHWEST TX SOUTH OF
CHILDRESS MOVING TOWARD THE AREA WHICH SHOULD SET UP THE NEXT
ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL. THE AVAILABLE BULK SHEAR COULD LEAD TO
RENEWED LEWP/QLCS ACTIVITY WITH THE NEXT ROUND. MODELS WHICH SEEM
TO BEST PORTRAY FUTURE EVENTS ARE THE 00Z GFS, 00Z SPCWRF, RECENT
RAP RUNS, AND THE 00Z NAM CONEST, THOUGH THEY COULD BE TOO
SLOW/WEST WITH THEIR PLACEMENT. HOURLY RAIN RATES UP TO 1.5",
WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 3-5", PARTICULARLY IN SOUTHEAST OK, COULD
LEAD TO A NEW ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN ISSUES.
ROTH
ATTN...WFO...LZK...OUN...SGF...SHV...TSA...
ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...
LAT...LON 36729410 36679352 36219239 35419263 34679349
34059490 34079606 34339671 34779687 35429602
36089481
Last Updated: 219 AM EDT WED APR 26 2017
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