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WPC Met Watch

 
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion: #0127 (2016)
(Issued at 1149 PM EDT SUN APR 17 2016 )

MPD Selection
 


Graphic for MPD #0127
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0127
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1149 PM EDT SUN APR 17 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SE TEXAS 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 180349Z - 180949Z
 
SUMMARY...MCV/COLD POOL WITHIN WARM SECTOR TO ESTABLISH REINFORCED
BOUNDARY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR EXTREME TOTALS AND LIFE
THREATENING FLASH FLOODING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. 

DISCUSSION...EXCELLENT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE/DIFFLUENCE EXISTS
ACROSS E TX TO MAINTAIN MCS COMPLEX WITH WELL DEFINED MCV LIFTING
INTO NE TEXAS...WITH A CONVECTIVE QLCS WITH EFFICIENT HIGH RATES
UP TO 2.0"/HR AND WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A SHORT TERM FLASH
FLOODING THREAT THOUGH IT IS MOVING INTO HIGHER GUIDANCE... THIS
AREA WILL ALSO BE INCREASINGLY OBSTRUCTED BY THE COMPLEX
DEVELOPING SOUTH OF IT ACROSS NEAR/NW OF THE HOUSTON METRO ATTM.

IN THE LOW LEVELS THE BROAD 40-45KT SELY LLJ HAD BEEN TRANSPORTING
HIGH MOISTURE INTO THE LARGER COMPLEX TOWARD THE NORTH...BUT
ENOUGH CONVERGENCE LEAD TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WHICH DUE TO
LATENT HEAT RELEASE DEVELOPED A DECENT MCV AND COLD POOL...THIS
MCV LIFTING NORTH WITH ATTENDANT COLD POOL/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS
ESTABLISHED A CONVECTIVE LINE FROM COLORADO TO MONTGOMERY COUNTY
WHICH DUE TO ORIENTATION WITH THE MCV TO THE NORTH SHOULD CONTINUE
TO REINFORCE THE ALIGNMENT OF THE BOUNDARY AND ACT AS A NEARLY
STATIONARY CONVECTIVE INITIATION POINT FOR DEEP MST FLUX WITH TPWS
TO 1.75-2.0" AND SBCAPES MAINTAINED FROM THE GULF IN THE 1500-2000
J/KG RANGE WITHIN A ENVIRONMENT FOR WARM CLOUD HVY RAINFALL
PRODUCTION WITH RATES IN EXCESS OF 3"/HR WITH POTENTIAL FOR 4"/HR
OR HIGHER NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY.  WITH LITTLE
MOVEMENT...EXTREME TOTALS AND LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING ARE
LIKELY. 

THE SIGNAL FOR 6HR TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 7" HAS BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT WITHIN LARGE SCALE GUIDANCE FOR A FEW DAYS...JUST NOT
SURE IN EXACT LOCATION.  RECENT HI-RES CAMS...SUCH AS THE HRRR AND
ESRL EXP. HURR OVER 9" BY 10Z...THOUGH GIVEN RADAR TRENDS THIS IS
A FEW COUNTIES NORTH AND WEST OF CURRENT SETUP.  


GALLINA

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...LCH...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   31849591 31849495 30849445 29709479 28949631 
            29569742 30489749 31149667 


Last Updated: 1149 PM EDT SUN APR 17 2016
 

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