WPC Met Watch |
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Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion: #0035 (2018) |
(Issued at 752 AM EST FRI FEB 23 2018
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MPD Selection |
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MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0035
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
752 AM EST FRI FEB 23 2018
AREAS AFFECTED...TN...KY
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 231252Z - 231622Z
SUMMARY...AREAL FLOODING AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD ISSUES WILL
CONTINUE INTO MID MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF TN AND KY.
DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO TRAIN
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL TN
INTO WESTERN KY. HIGH RES MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THIS ALL THAT
WELL...WITH MOST OF THEM DEPICTING A WEAKER SOLUTION THAN IS
ACTUALLY OCCURRING. RECENT RADAR/SATELLITE/LIGHTNING TRENDS SHOW
THIS ACTIVITY MAINTAINING INTENSITY AS OF 1230Z. STILL NOT THE
MOST INTENSE RAINFALL...WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY CAPPING HOURLY
RATES GENERALLY AROUND 0.5" IN AN HOUR AND LESS (ALTHOUGH
LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE). HOWEVER ANTECEDENT RAINFALL OF
2-4" OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS RESULTED IN INCREASINGLY SATURATED
CONDITIONS. THUS THIS NEW RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL AREAL
FLOODING...WITH WITH ISOLATED MORE RAPID FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
WHERE ANY HEAVIER RATES DO BRIEFLY TRAIN.
DO THINK THAT WE SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN INTENSITY OF
THIS ACTIVITY AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MORNING...JUST HAPPENING
SLOWER THAN MOST MODELS DEPICT. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO PULL OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST RESULTING IN SLOWLY DECREASING SYNOPTIC ASCENT...AND
850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. THUS
WOULD ANTICIPATE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS ROUND WILL BE THROUGH
MID MORNING.
CHENARD
ATTN...WFO...LMK...MEG...OHX...PAH...
ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...
LAT...LON 37998626 37778575 37078596 36638694 36158798
35928890 35908931 36088935 36268912 36368896
36598869 36988839 37368823 37838731 37988697
Last Updated: 752 AM EST FRI FEB 23 2018
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