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WPC Met Watch

 
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion: #0034 (2018)
(Issued at 340 AM EST FRI FEB 23 2018 )

MPD Selection
 


Graphic for MPD #0034

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0034
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
340 AM EST FRI FEB 23 2018

AREAS AFFECTED...TX...OK...AR...LA...MO...IL...KY...TN

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY

VALID 230839Z - 231439Z

SUMMARY...CONTINUED RAINFALL...EVEN IF NOT QUITE AS HEAVY AS
BEFORE...IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING GIVEN NEAR 100
PERCENT RUNOFF IN SOME LOCATIONS. RELATIVE LACK OF REPORTS MAY BE
OWING TO DARKNESS. SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOOD IMPACTS STILL POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING.

DISCUSSION...AS OF 0830Z THE AREA FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS TO THE
OHIO/MISSISSIPPI RIVER CONFLUENCE...CROSSING ARKANSAS...HAD
RECEIVED THE BRUNT OF THE MULTI-DAY HEAVY RAIN EVENT...AND RAIN
CONTINUED TO FALL. GAUGE AND RADAR ESTIMATES INDICATED WIDESPREAD
3-INCH AMOUNTS HAD FALLEN...AND THIS NUMBER WAS LIKELY CLOSER TO 6
INCHES FOR MUCH OF ARKANSAS AND SOME PARTS OF ADJACENT STATES.

FORECAST MODELS WERE NOT HANDLING THE NEAR-SFC BASED CONVECTION
VERY WELL AS IT PUSHED EAST INTO TENNESSEE...BUT THEY WERE BETTER
HANDLING THE RENEWED RAINFALL WITHIN THE ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE
ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. THIS ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
THROUGH 15Z AND PERHAPS BEYOND...VIA WARM ADVECTION ON THE WESTERN
END...AND CONFLUENCE / CONVERGENCE IN THE 850-700 MB WIND FIELD
FARTHER EAST. THE 00Z WRF-ARW2 AND GEM REGIONAL OFFER REASONABLE
DEPICTIONS....AND THEIR QPFS WOULD SUGGEST AREAL AVERAGE OF AN
ADDITIONAL 0.50 TO 1.25 INCHES IN MANY AREAS THROUGH 15Z...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

RAIN RATES PER DUAL POL ESTIMATES FROM KFWS AND KLZK WERE NOT
QUITE AS HEAVY AS EARLIER IN THE NIGHT...WITH HOURLY RATES MORE
COMMONLY 0.50-0.75 INCHES AT MOST...BUT THE REGION WAS VERY
SATURATED...NOTING RECENT 0815Z FLASH FLOOD WARNING ISSUANCE IN
TEXAS. A RELATIVE ABSENCE OF REPORTED FLASH FLOODING MAY BE DUE TO
THE TIME OF DAY...AND THE FEAR IS THAT DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING IS
LIKELY ONGOING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING COMMUTE HOURS
AS WIDESPREAD RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL.

BURKE

ATTN...WFO...FWD...HGX...LZK...MEG...OUN...PAH...SGF...SHV...
TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   37618865 37388826 36538882 35758999 34629091
            33819164 33439288 32709380 31609471 30999554
            31029613 31249640 31879626 32189637 32259678
            32149748 32549783 33349767 34389618 35269387
            36259195 37508974


Last Updated: 340 AM EST FRI FEB 23 2018
 

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Page last modified: Tuesday, 27-Dec-2022 16:59:57 GMT