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WPC Met Watch

 
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion: #0026 (2014)
(Issued at 300 PM EDT SUN APR 27 2014 )

MPD Selection
 


Graphic for MPD #0026
 
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0026
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT SUN APR 27 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN MO...NORTHEAST AR...WESTERN
TN...NORTHERN MS...EXTREME NORTHWEST AL 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 271900Z - 272230Z
 
SUMMARY...REPEATING/BACK-BUILDING THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
FLASH FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST IR SAT IMAGERY SHOWS COLD-TOPPED
CONVECTION CONTINUING OVER NERN AR/NWRN MS AND FAR SOUTHWEST TN.
CONVECTION IS  ALSO SEEN DEVELOPING OVER NORTHWEST AR AND
ADVANCING INTO SRN MO. ALL OF THE ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING IN AN
ELEVATED FASHION TO THE NORTHEAST OF A WELL-DEFINED STATIONARY
FRONT. GIVEN THE ONGOING CONVECTION...THE COOL SECTOR CONTINUES TO
BE REINFORCED...AND WITH A STRONG SWLY LOW LVL JET INTERACTING
WITH THIS BNDRY AND OVERRUNNING IT. 

THE LATEST GOES-SOUNDER DATA SHOWS VERY UNSTABLE AIR POOLED OVER
SRN AR/LA WITH LI/S OF -10 TO -12 AND MUCAPE VALUES OF OVER 4000
J/KG. THE LATEST VIS SUGGESTS THAT REMAINING SFC-BASED CIN IS
GRADUALLY ERODING AND WITH THE APPROACH OF THE STRONG DEEP LAYER
CLOSED LOW OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS...THERE WILL GRADUALLY BE AN
UPTICK IN WARM SECTOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WARM SECTOR
CONVECTION WILL BE LIFTING NEWD AND INTERACTING WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED BNDRY AS WELL AND INTO AREAS WHERE ALREADY VERY
HEAVY RAINS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING AND REPEATING.

FLASH FLOODING IS ALREADY OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE THREAT
AREA...AND WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS
CONVECTION BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED AND REPEATS OVER THE SAME
AREAS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
LOCALLY...AND THIS MAY RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...SGF...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...NCRFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   33938962 34299048 34839127 35379188 36509211 36999126
            36789012 35578866 35178816 34838786 34148790 33738854
            33938962 


Last Updated: 315 PM EDT SUN APR 27 2014
 

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Page last modified: Wednesday, 13-May-2015 19:29:02 GMT