Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0150
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1000 PM EDT Wed Apr 10 2024

Areas affected...Florida Panhandle, Southeast Alabama & Southwest
Georgia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 110215Z - 110815Z

SUMMARY...
Widely scattered instances of flash flooding likely to continue as
convection capable of rainfall rates to 1.5 inches per hour
continue across portions of the Deep South. Locally considerable
flash flooding may develop in the hardest hit areas if heavier
convection redevelops late tonight, with new instances of flash
flooding possible.

DISCUSSION...
An MCS slowly tracking along the northeastern Gulf Coast continues
to generate a large area of light to moderate rain. Embedded
convection is locally producing heavy rain to 1.5 inches per hour
over the central Panhandle near Tallahassee and on the
back/northwest side of the precipitation shield towards Pensacola
and south-central Alabama.

Storm total rainfall has broadly averaged between 2 and 5 inches
across the Florida Panhandle, southeast Alabama, and southwest
Georgia. Local totals near the southeast corner of Alabama
southwest into the north-central Panhandle are over 6 inches for
storm total rainfall. This rainfall has already resulted in flash
flooding across these areas.

Through the early morning hours, expect the line of heaviest
rainfall embedded within the middle of the rainfall shield from
west of Tallahassee into the southwest corner of Georgia to
continue slowly weakening. The heaviest embedded convection will
become more cellular, originating from the Gulf, and tracking
northeast. The cellular convection will be more likely to train as
it moves into the Panhandle from the Gulf. The slow eastward
progress of the entire mass of rain will support continued steady
rain over much of the MPD area through 0830Z, with the back edge
gradually moving southeast across southeast Alabama and the far
western Panhandle.

There remains considerable uncertainty how much convection will
move into the Gulf Coast from the Gulf, as thusfar most of the
heaviest convection has remained offshore. Most of the CAMs
continue to suggest the convection will move ashore, but the CAMs
have done quite poorly depicting that northward move up until now.
Convection with marginally higher rainfall rates has successfully
moved inland along the back/western edge of the rainfall shield,
likely due to added forcing from the advancing upper level
shortwave, and should this pattern continue that should diminish
the time any one area sees embedded convection capable of
producing new flash flooding. Meanwhile, the ongoing steady rain
will enable ongoing flooding to continue through the overnight,
worsening should heavier convection move over the hardest hit
areas.

Wegman

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...JAX...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   32278419 31948292 31098293 30288354 29968384
            29648477 29588519 30328635 30268727 31278671
            32078515