Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0148
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
218 PM EDT Wed Apr 10 2024

Areas affected...Central to Northeast MS

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 101818Z - 102218Z

SUMMARY...Additional heavy showers and thunderstorms over the next
few hours should maintain the threat for areas of flash flooding,
and especially with wet/saturated soil conditions. Conditions
should gradually improve by late this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery shows a very strong MCV advancing
east-northeast across central MS which is connected to the
long-lived QLCS that has been sweeping across the Gulf Coast
states over the last several hours. Areas of heavy rain showers
and thunderstorms are still occurring in conjunction with the MCV
itself, although cloud tops are gradually warming across the
region which is suggestive of a general weakening trend.

The energy associated with the MCV is becoming well-detached from
the pooling of better instability and low-level jet forcing
situated closer to the central Gulf Coast, and this should
facilitate a further weakening of the rainfall rates/trends for
central to northeast MS heading through the late afternoon hours.

Nevertheless, rainfall rates of as much as 1" to 1.5" are still
occurring with some of the stronger embedded convective cells
within the larger scale convective mass, and at least for a few
more hours, these rains will be falling on areas that have already
had excessive rainfall and flash flooding.

The latest HRRR guidance suggests additional rainfall totals of 1
to 2 inches with isolated heavier amounts being possible going
through late this afternoon, and this may still focus some
concerns for more short-term flash flooding.

Orrison

ATTN...WFO...BMX...JAN...MEG...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   34618853 34308815 33748819 33278833 32698893
            32658991 33189034 34418936