Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0068
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
344 PM EST Mon Feb 19 2024

Areas affected...portions of central California

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 192019Z - 200219Z

Summary...A few thunderstorms have developed in the southern San
Joaquin Valley in the past couple hours.  Brief heavy rainfall has
resulted in spots of 0.5 inch/hr rain rates at times.  Flash
flooding is possible in this regime.

Discussion...Abundant sunshine and ascent from weak shortwave
troughs embedded in cyclonic flow aloft has allowed for several
thunderstorms to form recently near Fresno and Hanford in the
southern San Joaquin Valley.  The storms are in a fairly unstable
environment characterized by 1000+ J/kg SBCAPE and fairly strong
shear aloft resulting from 75 kt southwesterly flow at 500mb.
Despite the strong steering flow, the presence of deep convection
and potential localized backbuilding within the axis of
instability suggests some potential for localized backbuilding and
spots of 0.5+ inch/hr rain rates could result in an isolated flash
flood risk.  This risk will likely persist through the afternoon
(perhaps through 02Z or so) as insolation and warm advection helps
to maintain sufficient instability for deep convection.

Cook

ATTN...WFO...HNX...MTR...REV...STO...

ATTN...RFC...CNRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   39002030 37911934 37761927 36171841 35241879
            35411960 36752086 37432161 37912156 38832081