Excessive Rainfall Discussion


[Abbreviations and acronyms used in this product]
Geographic boundaries:    Map 1- [Color] [B/W Print Version]      Map 2 - [Color] [B/W Print Version]



Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
445 AM EDT Wed Jun 06 2018


...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND MIDWEST...

...North Dakota/Minnesota...
Remnant Gulf moisture surging north rides over the Red River of
the North vicinity Friday. Ongoing shortwave energy moving over
the northern plains should allow convective thunderstorm
development and isolated flash flooding given the low FFG in this
area. A Marginal Risk was raised to account for this risk.

...Midwest/Great Lakes...
An axis of instability east of ongoing organized activity from Day
2 allows thunderstorms to shift east across the Great Lakes area
Friday/Friday night. 00Z model consensus is for a stripe of heavy
precip from organized activity moving east across Michigan and
approaching the eastern Great Lakes. Latitudinal differences exist
and the 00Z NAM/UKMET was chosen as the preferred for similarity
and that it is farther south (the path is often south of guidance
at this range). The 00Z GFS/ECMWF are farther north over MI, so it
will be interesting to see whether this threat is 1) borne out and
2) where it tracks. Depending on speed the development could reach
PA/NY by the end of the period/12Z Saturday.

Jackson





Last Updated: 445 AM EDT WED JUN 06 2018