The Weather Prediction Center

Short Range Forecast Discussion

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Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
358 AM EDT Sun Oct 21 2018

Valid 12Z Sun Oct 21 2018 - 12Z Tue Oct 23 2018

...Heavy rainfall threat continues for South Texas...

...Below normal temperatures for the eastern U.S. as most of the
western U.S. stays warm and dry...


As the cold front that pushed across the East Coast continues to
move farther into the Atlantic, surface high pressure will build
across the eastern U.S. Dry conditions will settle for the second
half of the weekend and into the early workweek. However, a mix of
light snow and rain showers can be expected for the lower Great
Lakes today. Most of the rainfall activity will occur in South
Texas as a stationary front stays put off the middle and south
Texas Coast. Copious amounts of moisture will be pulled across the
Rio Grande Valley, and will give way to showers and thunderstorms.
The heaviest rainfall will occur off the coast in Mexico; however,
some localized flooding is possible near the Texas/Mexican border
adjacent to the coast. Consequently, a flash flood watch is in
effect for the Brownsville region. By Monday, low pressure will
begin to lift northward--thus, the heavy rainfall will also lift
north across south-central Texas and into southeast Texas. This
axis of heavy rainfall will begin to shift eastward toward the
central Gulf Coast by Tuesday. Some of this activity could produce
localized flash flooding.


High temperatures will continue to stay below normal across the
eastern and southern U.S. today and overnight. The foothills of
North Carolina will receive the first freeze of the year overnight
Sunday and into Monday--with much of the Tennessee Valley and
portions of the Southeast. By Monday, high temperatures will
rebound to near normal. The exception will be Texas as the
rainfall activity expected to occur in south and south-central
Texas will keep high temperatures in the upper 50s to low
60s--which is nearly 25 degrees below normal. An upper level
trough will move toward the Four Corners today, ushering in
moisture that will lead to scattered showers and thunderstorms
across the Southwest and Central Great Basin. As the trough pushes
inland, the rainfall will shift east in the Four Corners region.
Otherwise, dry conditions and above normal temperatures are
expected for the rest of the western U.S.


Reinhart



Graphics available at
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php




Last Updated: 358 AM EDT Sun Oct 21 2018