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Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1900Z Jan 22, 2018)
 
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Abbreviations and acronyms used in this product
 
Geographic Boundaries -  Map 1: Color  Black/White       Map 2: Color  Black/White


QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
200 PM EST MON JAN 22 2018


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JAN 23/0000 UTC THRU JAN 24/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

UPPER MS VALLEY---UPPER GREAT LAKES---NORTHEAST

THE DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NUDGING INTO THE MID MS VALLEY EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIFT STEADILY NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER
LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY. OVERALL---THERE CONTINUES TO BE GOOD MASS
FIELD EVOLUTION AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AT 12Z, AND IN GENERAL
THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD ACCORD WITH RESPECT TO THE QPF
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM AND COLD CONVEYOR BELTS -- ALONG WITH THE
PROGGED MINIMAL OF PCPN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN OH VALLEY
AND INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION GIVEN THE LIKELY (LONGER)
DURATION UNDERNEATH THE DEEP-LAYER DRY SLOT. OTHERWISE, WIDESPREAD
0.50-1.0+ INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT TOTALS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST PER A MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE OF BOTH GLOBAL
AND HIGH-RES GUIDANCE. MEANWHILE, THE AXIS OF FOCUSED HIGHER
AMOUNTS ALONG THE CCB/COMMA HEAD REGION WILL YIELD ADDITIONAL
0.10-0.25" AMOUNTS BACK INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND 0.25-0.50"
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES (WITH AN AREA > 0.50" EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL UPPER MI GIVEN THE DEVELOPING NORTH-FLOW LAKE ENHANCEMENT
OFF SUPERIOR).

GIVEN THE WIDESPREAD WINTER WEATHER IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM,
PLEASE THE LATEST QPFHSD FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION REGARDING THE
SNOWFALL AND/OR ICING POTENTIAL.


MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEASTERN U.S.

PW VALUES EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE AVERAGE...1 TO 2+ STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN---ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE LOW HEADED TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. THIS FRONT
SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE DAY 1 AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD FROM
ITS INITIAL POSITION WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE EXPECTED QUICK
MOVEMENT SHOULD LIMIT THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL--AS MOSTLY
MODERATE AREAL-AVERAGE TOTALS EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. 

HURLEY/ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml

24HR QP VT 24/00Z
 0.01 469621 483620 489620 493623 501632 505637 509642 511649
      513657 518672 522688 523694 524701 523724 522741 512768
      510776 509783 508791 506797 501806 495816 484844 481861
      478875 474889 470903 466913 460923 446947 442952 438957
      426960 416964 410963 405961 400959 395959 393953 389947
      387941 381941 375940 375936 373932 373927 375922 377916
      380909 382905 385899 384889 384885 383881 382868 382861
      376860 368861 361863 348864 340863 334866 323871 299877
      289881 280887 270895 264897 258896 250895 247892 239882
      237878 237871 238857 246851 245848 246843 251829 258819
      259817 258815 254810 252806 254799 259796 265794 270792
      274789 277784 278778 275774 272770 275765 284764 286762
      289761 297760 308754 315751 319747 334734 344726 352717
      361708 369699 374694 378691 388683 404670 409666 411659
      412652 413646 421641 427635
 0.01 465622 464624 462624 461625 459626 457626 456627 454628
      453628 452629 451631 450631 448632 446633 445634 443634
      441634 439633 437633 436632
 0.01 534228 535220 536214 538210 538203 538193 535185 532178
      527171 523165 518161 496141 485129 479125 473122 464121
      461123 462126 461131 459134 456140 454144 453150 449160
      445164 443174 438194 441208 443210 444213 440212 435212
      432213 426215 422221 400236 396244 396254 392274 390280
      388289 387294 388301
 0.01 459328 457325 455324 452321 451318 448316 447314 443312
      440311 437309 434308 432306 429305 425305 423305 421307
      419308 417309 413310
 0.01 525241 525238 526236 526233 525230 523230 522232 522234
      521237 521240 522241 523242 525241
 0.01 476111 475106 472105 462103 456100 452094 447093 444096
      441096 437094 435096 432094 429092 426091 424091 427096
      429098 431102 419107 421110 419112 412113 410110 409104
      407105 405109 404116 405119 410119 416124 418127 418133
      414141 414147 415152 414160 413164 415167 417168 419164
      421151 422140 426132 430125 438122 440121 444123 443129
      440132 439136 442137 447138 451138 451126 456120 455118
      455113 458112 463113 465114 466112 464109 466107 469110
      472111 476111
 0.01 464164 463163 461162 459161 458162 457165 457167 457170
      458172 460172 461170 461168 462166 462165 464164
 0.01 465077 465071 463066 461062 458059 448044 443036 441038
      439040 436040 435037 435033 436027 437018 434016 431020
      426027 424031 424037 427046 433066 422053 420054 421059
      421062 417062 410057 407055 402055 394058 391061 391068
      396066 402060 408062 410063 407064 402064 400066 400069
      397071 396074 397077 399079 402077 404075 407076 411078
      415078 417076 415071 414068 412064 415066 421074 424072
      424067 427067 430070 434076 438074 440073 441075 447080
      453087 455091 459091 463085 465077
 0.25 516281 517267 518255 516246 512237 503221 499214 494209
      491205 490201 488195 485193 479195 473199 470202 468206
      464207 461205 451215 444218 440219 439223 435233 433236
      430238 421236 417237 415239 415245 413248 409253 408261
      408265 407272 405278 402287 402292 403297 410302 417299
      428293 435291 445294 460297 467303 472311 480324 485334
      490338 493337
 0.25 505665 504658 503651 499642 494636 489632 482632 475634
      458638 444641 433647 419672 408685 396695 385705 373714
      363722 353731 334750 323760 312769 299777 292781 287785
      285788 285791 290794 296796 302796 312790 327783 335778
      340773 345767 351762 351758 353755 359749 365746 374744
      376744 375747 371754 369760 368764 369768 375771 377776
      369786 366793 360800 352811 341821 339823 334825 329820
      324817 318813 306811 300810 296805 295800 292798 288798
      281802 276808 272815 270821 267829 266834 266837 269843
      265848 260852 254854 251858 251863 252868 253871 256877
      260881 262882 265882 270880 277875 283869 289865 294864
      298865 304865 310861 322852 332845 337843 343844 349844
      353842 355839 358834 359825 364818 370814 375814 378816
      380817 385816 391815 397818 403822 410825 415827 420827
      427829 432832 440842 439852 440857 438860 435862 433865
      434869 439869 440868 442870 444877 446879 453882 455884
      458889 460897 463899 467899 470885 471876 472868 473857
      475848 477839 480832 487815 489805 490794 497757 500740
      505726 506718 506706 506688 505665
 0.25 489234 490232 490229 490226 489225 487224 486223 484223
      483222 481222 480223 480226 480227 480229 481231 482234
      482237 482239 483237 484237 485235 486234 488234 489234
 0.25 265802 264800 263799 261800 259800 258801 257803 258804
      259805 260805 261806 263805 265802
 0.50 510281 512264 511257 510250 509238 504229 498219 495218
      492224 492229 494235 497244 493243 490239 486238 483245
      481242 480237 479231 475227 472226 472224 474219 483215
      485210 482206 476206 473207 469212 464213 459212 456217
      452219 448219 445221 444225 448231 447233 444234 441237
      438242 435245 431246 424239 421240 420242 421249 414259
      412273 408284 408289 409292 414294 418294 422291 428286
      435280 441279 444277 452271 467265 473265 477269 484278
      490285 495288 500289 507287 510281
 0.50 498680 498667 495656 493648 492643 490641 481639 468640
      453646 447649 441652 437656 432661 428671 420683 411693
      407698 402701 392708 369723 361731 359737 361739 364739
      378734 386732 389738 392744 391751 393757 394761 394766
      394769 395773 400776 403785 409786 413786 415786 415782
      415777 416774 419768 424763 430763 434768 436776 434790
      433797 430802 429806 429812 434816 445820 450822 457821
      463820 467824 470826 473825 477821 481815 483808 486775
      490759 491740 495712 496701 497693 498680
 0.50 466873 466871 466868 466866 466863 466861 465858 465857
      464859 463861 462864 461866 461869 461871 462873 462875
      463876 464876 465876 466874 466873
 0.50 368806 367804 365804 365805 364806 363807 363809 364810
      366810 366809 367807 368806
 0.50 355830 356828 356826 355824 354821 353822 352822 351823
      350824 349826 348827 347828 347829 346831 345833 346835
      346836 348837 350836 351835 353833 355831 355830
 0.50 338760 337758 333760 327764 322767 315772 310776 308779
      309783 312785 316783 321780 327775 332770 336765 338760
 0.50 319832 319828 318824 315822 310822 305825 296829 293832
      291837 295840 299840 300849 297861 300863 304861 309852
      314843 319833 319832
 0.50 287818 286815 284814 282816 280817 278819 276822 276824
      274827 273830 276830 278828 280827 282825 284823 286821
      287818
 0.50 286858 287852 285849 282847 278848 271851 264854 258858
      257861 256864 259870 261874 265876 272872 277869 282864
      286858
 1.00 503278 503273 501268 499263 498260 496254 494251 490250
      489254 489257 490262 492266 494271 497275 500278 503278
 1.00 479238 478236 478234 476233 474232 472233 472234 472236
      472239 471241 472244 473245 474245 476242 478240 478239
      479238
 1.00 481678 481671 479666 475662 471657 469653 467653 453660
      447663 443667 438673 435680 434688 435696 435708 433715
      428726 426731 427734 432739 434742 437742 441738 445732
      448724 449721 451721 449727 451736 453745 457751 461755
      466759 468768 471774 473772 473768 469761 467758 468754
      470746 470739 472720 473712 475705 479689 481678
 1.00 431265 432259 429257 426259 423263 421267 419271 417277
      416285 419283 421280 423277 426273 429269 431265
 1.00 425734 420734 417731 412727 413732 415731 417738 418741
      415746 412749 406755 404760 406766 410766 413763 416755
      420747 421741 424737 425734
 1.50 462681 462678 461673 457670 454673 451676 449682 449687
      450692 454694 457692 460688 462683 462681