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Short Range Public Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 0818Z Jun 17, 2018)
 
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 418 AM EDT Sun Jun 17 2018 Valid 12Z Sun Jun 17 2018 - 12Z Tue Jun 19 2018 ...Severe thunderstorms and flash flooding continue for parts of the Upper Midwest on Sunday and Monday... ...Continued rain and thunderstorms for the Great Basin and Northern and Central Rockies through Monday... ...Dangerously hot conditions for the Midwest and Ohio Valley on Sunday and the East Coast on Monday... A slowly moving front stretching from the Midwest through the Plains and into the Rockies and Central Great Basin will be the main weather causer over the next couple of days. For the Midwest and the Plains, heavy rain and severe thunderstorms are likely on Sunday and will persist into Monday. Slight risks of flash flooding and severe weather are in place across the Central Plains into the Upper Midwest on Sunday. An embedded moderate risk of excessive rainfall is in effect for northern Wisconsin and portions of Upper Michigan, where heavy rainfall has already fallen over the past day or so. The eastern part of the front currently in Canada will push southward into the northeastern U.S. by Monday evening, leading to rain and the possibility of flash flooding and strong thunderstorms there as well. Farther west, an upper-level trough plus the stationary front will lead to rain and thunderstorms for the Great Basin into the Northern and Central Rockies region. Heavy rainfall is possible, particularly for the Northern Rockies, where there is a slight risk of flash flooding in effect on Sunday and Sunday night. Cooler than average temperatures will be in place in those areas. South of the front, hot temperatures combined with high humidity will lead to heat indices over 100 degrees in the central and eastern U.S. Widespread Heat Advisories are in effect for the Middle Mississippi Valley and portions of the Ohio Valley and Upper Great Lakes region on Sunday. Excessive Heat Warnings are in effect for the cities of Chicago and St. Louis. Heat will build in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast by Monday, with record high temperatures well into the 90s possible there. Elsewhere, a trough of low pressure combined with tropical moisture near the Texas coast will produce heavy rainfall there by Monday. There is a slight chance of flash flooding along the Texas coast on Monday, and more rain is expected Tuesday, so continue to monitor subsequent forecasts. Scattered thunderstorms are possible throughout the Southeast through the beginning of the week, but are not expected to be severe or cause widespread flash flooding. Tate Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php