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Short Range Public Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1959Z Jun 17, 2018)
 
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 359 PM EDT Sun Jun 17 2018 Valid 00Z Mon Jun 18 2018 - 00Z Wed Jun 20 2018 ...Strong to severe thunderstorms along with heavy rain and areas of flash flooding can be expected from parts of the Central Plains and Midwest east to the Northeast through the early part of the week... ...Heavy rainfall and concerns for flash flooding are expected across southeast Texas... ...Dangerous heat and humidity will continue across much of the Midwest on Monday while also spreading east across the Ohio Valley and the Eastern Seaboard... Multiple rounds of heavy showers and strong thunderstorms are expected to impact many areas of the Central Plains, Midwest and also the Northeast over the next couple of days as multiple waves of low pressure lift up along a frontal zone that is very slowly settling southeast across the region. Some of the thunderstorms will be severe during especially the afternoon and evening hours, and there will also be concerns for flash flooding given the multi-day threat of heavy rainfall, although the overall axis of heaviest rainfall will tend to be settling farther south compared to the last couple of days. Nevertheless, locally several inches of rain are expected, and with the regional concerns for flash flooding, the Weather Prediction Center has highlighted Slight and Moderate Risks of excessive rainfall, with the Moderate Risk focused on the highly sensitive areas of east-central Minnesota, northern Wisconsin, and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan going through tonight and early Monday. The Storm Prediction Center meanwhile has portions of these areas in a Slight Risk for severe weather. Meanwhile, areas south of the front across the Midwest will see very hot and muggy conditions continue over the next couple of days while also expanding off to the east to include the Ohio Valley, most of New England and the Mid-Atlantic region. High temperatures for most of these areas will be well into the 90s, but when combined with the high humidity, it will feel as hot as 100 to 110 degrees. Heat advisories and Excessive Heat Warnings are in effect locally to address these concerns. There will be unsettled weather developing quickly for the start of the new week across the western Gulf Coast region, and especially for southeast Texas as a surge of tropical moisture in off the western Gulf of Mexico and the arrival of a trough of low pressure will bring numerous showers and thunderstorms to the region. This will bring beneficial rainfall for most of the region as it has been quite dry and the area is locally in a drought. However, several inches of rain are expected, and this area will need to be very closely monitored for flash flooding should heavier rainfall amounts materialize. Elsewhere across the West, a deep trough of low pressure will generally remain in place which will maintain cooler than normal temperatures across most of the Great Basin, Northern Rockies and the northern High Plains. Some additional rainfall is expected too and especially across the Northern Rockies and northern High Plains where a couple inches of additional rain is expected. Some flooding concerns will be possible here as well. Orrison Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php