Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
415 AM EDT Mon Jun 18 2018
Valid 12Z Mon Jun 18 2018 - 12Z Wed Jun 20 2018
...Heavy rain and strong thunderstorms continue for the Plains to the
Northeast along and north of a front...
...Heavy rain and flash flooding expected for the Texas coast...
...Dangerous heat continues for the Midwest and Ohio Valley and spreads
eastward into the Northeast...
A cold front is forecast to make its way into the Northeast U.S. on Monday
and Monday night, and continue into the northern Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday.
Along and ahead of this front, thunderstorms are expected for the
Northeast, and there are slight risks of both severe weather and flash
flooding for that region on Monday and Monday night. As the front
progresses southward, storms will spread into the Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday.
Farther west, the front is stalled, and thus will continue to linger
across the Ohio Valley, Middle Mississippi Valley, and Central Plains.
Multiple rounds of rain and thunderstorms are expected for these areas
along and north of the front. A moderate risk of excessive rainfall/flash
flooding is in effect for the Central Plains on Tuesday as a low pressure
system along the front begins to strengthen. Storms elsewhere in those
regions could also contain flash flooding and be strong to severe on
Monday and Tuesday.
Even farther west, the Northern Rockies and Northern High Plains are
expecting rain and thunderstorms on Monday and Tuesday with an upper-level
low in the area. This rain of an inch or two could lead to flooding there,
and cooler than average temperatures are forecast.
A trough of low pressure is forecast to linger near the Texas coast over
the next couple of days, and this combined with high levels of moisture in
the atmosphere will lead several inches of rain there. This rain could be
beneficial for areas in drought, but flash flooding is possible in
locations where thunderstorms produce a high rainfall rates or train over
South of the front, hot temperatures and high humidity will lead to heat
indices over 100 degrees in portions of the Middle Mississippi Valley and
Ohio Valley, as well as into the Mid-Atlantic on Monday. Heat Advisories
are widespread throughout those areas, with Excessive Heat Warnings
remaining through Monday for the cities of St. Louis and Chicago.
Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php