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Short Range Public Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 0754Z Mar 16, 2024)
 
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 354 AM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 12Z Sat Mar 16 2024 - 12Z Mon Mar 18 2024 ...Heavy mountain snow impacts the Four Corners and Southern Rockies this weekend... ...Severe thunderstorms and heavy rain possible across southern Texas and along the Gulf Coast... ...Mild weather continues across the Pacific Northwest and East Coast... The lingering closed upper low located over the Desert Southwest is forecast to remain mostly stationary this weekend and produce the continued threat of heavy mountain snow from the Four Corners region to the Southern Rockies. In particular, the high terrain of central/southern Utah as well as the San Juan and Sangre de Cristo Mountains of Colorado and New Mexico can expect treacherous conditions due to heavy snow. Additional snowfall accumulations over a foot are expected for parts of the Southern Rockies through Monday, with Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories remaining in effect. Meanwhile, a stalling cold front extending from the Southeast to southern Texas will lead to at least a few more days of storminess for the Lone Star State and remaining Gulf Coast region. The greatest severe weather threat exists today across south-central Texas and the Middle Texas Coast, where the Storm Prediction Center has highlighted a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe thunderstorms. Large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes are possible within the strongest storms. Intense rainfall rates falling over saturated ground may also lead to flash flooding and standing water in urban areas throughout similar portions of Texas and stretching into far southwest Louisiana. By Sunday, shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to stretch along most of the Gulf Coast, with isolated to scattered chances for severe weather and flash flooding. Given recent rainfall, parts of southwest Louisiana and southeast Texas have been designated as having a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for Excessive Rainfall. The other notable system to impact the CONUS through early next week is forecast to clip the Great Lakes and northern New England, producing mostly light rain and snow showers as well as gusty winds and cooler temperatures. Locally heavy snow is possible downwind of the Great Lakes on Sunday and Monday. Before the chilly and below average airmass progresses into the eastern third of the Nation on Monday, mild afternoon temperatures into the 60s and 70s can be expected this weekend in the East. More importantly, the cold airmass on the way will contain a morning frost/freeze threat on Monday throughout the Midwest and Ohio Valley as lows dip into the 20s and 30s. Upper riding anchored over the Northwest will continue the warm and dry pattern throughout the Pacific Northwest and northern Great Basin, expanding into the northern High Plains on Monday. Highs into the 60s and 70s are forecast, which could break a few daily high temperature records. Snell Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php