Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
352 PM EDT Fri Oct 19 2018
Valid 00Z Sat Oct 20 2018 - 00Z Mon Oct 22 2018
...Heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding possible across parts of
central and southern Texas...
...Near record low daily high temperatures possible across the East and
South, while the West is warm and fire weather concerns continue in parts
of Southern California...
Moisture overriding a quasi-stationary front hugging the western Gulf
Coast should continue to produce showers and thunderstorms, capable of
localized flash flooding, across parts of deep south Texas this weekend,
with the best focus for heavy rainfall along the middle and southern Texas
coast. To the north, Gulf of Mexico moisture being pulled northward along
a cold front will allow for rain showers from the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic
to the Southern Appalachians and the Southern Plains. This front should be
very quick moving so widespread flash flooding is not a concern, but
localized heavy rainfall/flash flooding cannot be ruled out, particularly
across already very saturated parts of central Texas. Cold air filtering
in behind the front may also allow for light snow showers across the Upper
Midwest, Great Lakes, and northern Appalachians through the weekend.
Following the cold frontal passage on Saturday, temperatures from the
Eastern U.S. to the Southern Plains should be rather chilly as surface
high pressure settles in. A handful of record or near record low afternoon
highs on Sunday are possible from the Northeast to the southern
Appalachians and back into the Southern Plains with temperatures forecast
to be 10 to 20 degrees below normal. Meanwhile, upper level ridging will
continue to promote warmer than normal temperatures with anomalies as much
as 10 to 20 degrees above normal out west. These warm temperatures,
combined with low humidities and gusty Santa Ana winds, will continue the
elevated to critical fire weather threat for portions of Southern
California, including the greater Los Angeles and San Diego regions.
Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php