Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
412 AM EDT Tue Jun 19 2018
Valid 12Z Tue Jun 19 2018 - 12Z Thu Jun 21 2018
...Flash flooding and strong thunderstorms expected for Central Plains to
Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic...
...Heavy rain and flash flooding forecast along and near the Texas coast...
...Heat continues for the Middle Mississippi Valley to Mid-Atlantic and
A frontal system remains stalled over the Central Plains through the
Middle Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley, and Mid-Atlantic, which will
continue to produce multiple rounds of rain and thunderstorms along it on
Tuesday and Wednesday. As an upper-level low provides additional support
for thunderstorm development, storms are expected to become more
widespread and organized in the Central Plains on Tuesday and Tuesday
night. Storms could be severe, and a moderate risk of excessive
rainfall/flash flooding is in effect as well. Severe weather and locally
heavy rain and flash flooding are also possible east of there along the
front, with slight risks of flash flooding on Tuesday and Wednesday and a
marginal risk of severe weather on Tuesday.
Farther south, summertime scattered storms are forecast south of the front
for the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys and the Southeast, but
widespread severe weather and flash flooding are not expected there. And
farther west, showers and thunderstorms will persist on Tuesday for the
Northern Rockies and Northern Plains, with locally heavy rain possible and
cooler than average temperatures.
A trough of low pressure as well as high moisture levels will lead to more
rain for southern and southeastern Texas for the middle of the week. As
several inches of rain is expected, and because portions of this region
have seen heavy rain overnight already, moderate risks of flash flooding
are in effect on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Another day of hot weather is forecast south of the front on Tuesday, with
above average temperatures from the Middle Mississippi Valley to the
Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas. Heat Advisories are in effect for the eastern
Carolinas and southeastern Virginia, and linger across portions of
Missouri and Illinois, with Excessive Heat Warnings in place for the St.
Louis area. Temperatures are expected to cool some on Wednesday as clouds
increase due to the front. Heat also builds into the West by Wednesday,
with a few record highs possible in the Pacific Northwest.
Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php