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Short Range Public Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1952Z Oct 19, 2018)
 
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 352 PM EDT Fri Oct 19 2018 Valid 00Z Sat Oct 20 2018 - 00Z Mon Oct 22 2018 ...Heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding possible across parts of central and southern Texas... ...Near record low daily high temperatures possible across the East and South, while the West is warm and fire weather concerns continue in parts of Southern California... Moisture overriding a quasi-stationary front hugging the western Gulf Coast should continue to produce showers and thunderstorms, capable of localized flash flooding, across parts of deep south Texas this weekend, with the best focus for heavy rainfall along the middle and southern Texas coast. To the north, Gulf of Mexico moisture being pulled northward along a cold front will allow for rain showers from the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic to the Southern Appalachians and the Southern Plains. This front should be very quick moving so widespread flash flooding is not a concern, but localized heavy rainfall/flash flooding cannot be ruled out, particularly across already very saturated parts of central Texas. Cold air filtering in behind the front may also allow for light snow showers across the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, and northern Appalachians through the weekend. Following the cold frontal passage on Saturday, temperatures from the Eastern U.S. to the Southern Plains should be rather chilly as surface high pressure settles in. A handful of record or near record low afternoon highs on Sunday are possible from the Northeast to the southern Appalachians and back into the Southern Plains with temperatures forecast to be 10 to 20 degrees below normal. Meanwhile, upper level ridging will continue to promote warmer than normal temperatures with anomalies as much as 10 to 20 degrees above normal out west. These warm temperatures, combined with low humidities and gusty Santa Ana winds, will continue the elevated to critical fire weather threat for portions of Southern California, including the greater Los Angeles and San Diego regions. Santorelli Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php