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Short Range Public Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 0759Z Oct 22, 2018)
 
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 359 AM EDT Mon Oct 22 2018 Valid 12Z Mon Oct 22 2018 - 12Z Wed Oct 24 2018 ...Heavy rainfall threat continues for South Texas... ...Showers and thunderstorms may give way to localized flash flooding across the Desert Southwest to west Texas... Active weather continues for Texas and the western Gulf coast as copious amounts of moisture will be across south central Texas and will interact with a surface trough. Showers and thunderstorms will result; for today, most of the activity is expected south of the Big Bend, across south-central Texas, and near the middle Texas coast where there is a lingering stationary front. Due to already saturated soils, some of these storms could give way to localized flooding. Thus, a marginal risk for Brownsville and into the south-central Texas and the middle Texas coast are in effect today and Tuesday. As the front lifts north, the showers and thunderstorms will shift east toward the central Gulf Coast on Tuesday and into Wednesday. Meanwhile, an upper level trough will begin pushing toward the Four Corners today and into Tuesday. This will bring moisture into the Desert Southwest and Central Great Basin. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across these regions today and will shift eastward across southern Colorado into west Texas by late Tuesday night and into Wednesday as the upper trough continues on an easterly path. A marginal risk of flash flooding is possible today the Desert Southwest in addition to a marginal risk on Tuesday across most of New Mexico and west Texas. High temperatures will continue to stay below normal across most of the eastern and central U.S. through the short range period. After a very cold, freezing start to Monday morning, low temperatures will rebound to near normal overnight Monday and Tuesday. Because of the active weather across South Texas, high temperatures will reach the low to mid 60s--nearly 10 to 20 degrees below normal. Meanwhile, most of the western U.S. will experience above normal temperatures and dry conditions. Reinhart Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php