Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
359 AM EDT Mon Oct 22 2018
Valid 12Z Mon Oct 22 2018 - 12Z Wed Oct 24 2018
...Heavy rainfall threat continues for South Texas...
...Showers and thunderstorms may give way to localized flash flooding
across the Desert Southwest to west Texas...
Active weather continues for Texas and the western Gulf coast as copious
amounts of moisture will be across south central Texas and will interact
with a surface trough. Showers and thunderstorms will result; for today,
most of the activity is expected south of the Big Bend, across
south-central Texas, and near the middle Texas coast where there is a
lingering stationary front. Due to already saturated soils, some of these
storms could give way to localized flooding. Thus, a marginal risk for
Brownsville and into the south-central Texas and the middle Texas coast
are in effect today and Tuesday. As the front lifts north, the showers and
thunderstorms will shift east toward the central Gulf Coast on Tuesday and
into Wednesday. Meanwhile, an upper level trough will begin pushing toward
the Four Corners today and into Tuesday. This will bring moisture into the
Desert Southwest and Central Great Basin. Showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop across these regions today and will shift eastward
across southern Colorado into west Texas by late Tuesday night and into
Wednesday as the upper trough continues on an easterly path. A marginal
risk of flash flooding is possible today the Desert Southwest in addition
to a marginal risk on Tuesday across most of New Mexico and west Texas.
High temperatures will continue to stay below normal across most of the
eastern and central U.S. through the short range period. After a very
cold, freezing start to Monday morning, low temperatures will rebound to
near normal overnight Monday and Tuesday. Because of the active weather
across South Texas, high temperatures will reach the low to mid
60s--nearly 10 to 20 degrees below normal. Meanwhile, most of the western
U.S. will experience above normal temperatures and dry conditions.
Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php