TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
810 AM EDT FRI APR 12 2024

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI APR 12/12UTC:
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...PR AND THE USVI WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS EACH DAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN AGAIN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND. 

ACROSS THE ATLANTIC...THERE IS A SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL TO NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC...WHICH IS SLOWLY DRIFTING TO
THE EAST NORTHEAST.  ANOTHER SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENTER THE
SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC...FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE THIS WEEKEND
INTO MONDAY. THESE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL CAUSE NE TO ENE
WINDS OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE MID
AND UPPER LEVELS WILL REMAIN STABLE OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.
HOWEVER...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS
ALSO SUGGESTING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE INCREASE
IN MOISTURE...THE MID TO UPPER TROUGHS TO OUR WEST...AND THE
POSSIBLE SFC TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...COULD COMBINE
TO CAUSE AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OVER PR/USVI ON
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. IN FACT...THE EGDI ALGORITHM CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

THE 5-DAY RAINFALL TOTAL FORECAST SUGGESTS NEAR 3 TO 4 INCHES OVER
NORTHEASTERN PR. BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES OF RAIN IS FORECAST FOR
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHWESTERN PR. ELSEWHERE IN
MAINLAND PR...0.75 TO 1.5 INCHES ARE FORECAST. VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
COULD OBSERVE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES OF RAIN...AND THE USVI ARE
FORECAST BETWEEN 0.50 AND ONE 1.25 INCHES OF RAIN.

ALAMO...WPC (USA)